Four Hills Tournament: Who will follow Kobayashi? The favorites of the tour

For 23 years and Sven Hannawald’s historic quadruple triumph, German ski jumping fans have been waiting for an overall Four Hills Tournament winner from the DSV team. This time an eagle from the German Ski Association in the yellow jersey starts into the ski jump spectacle in Oberstdorf, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Innsbruck and Bischofshofen. Who are the favorites?

The oldie of the German team is having the season of his life. The police chief from Kiefersfelden won five of the ten individual World Cups in 2024/25. “This is the hunted. We are the hunters,” said Austria’s Jan Hörl, who also won two World Cups this winter.

At the tour dress rehearsal in Switzerland, Paschke showed real weaknesses for the first time this season. The 34-year-old ended up in 10th and 18th place. Just a blip or a dip in form that will affect the tour? Teammate Andreas Wellinger sees the leader in the overall World Cup still in the flow. “I think he’s too good for that and has performed too well in the last few weeks that it’s unsettling him,” he said.

Unlike Paschke, Hörl gained additional confidence in his own strength in Engelberg. First place and second place: it doesn’t get much better than that. The 26-year-old already showed last season that the tour could suit him. Hörl won the Bergisel in Innsbruck and came fourth overall.

“For me personally, the hunter position is better,” he said, referring to Paschke. “Because you have a goal in mind: you want to beat him, you want to be the best ski jumper. That’s the Pius. That pushes me a little bit. I’m working very meticulously to get there.”

The 22-year-old is in second place in the World Cup standings, just ahead of his teammate Hörl. Tschofenig won the last competition before the tour last Sunday. In total, he has only achieved two World Cup victories in his career – both in December 2024. The young Austrian also has an additional personal connection to ski jumping: he is in a relationship with the Canadian world champion Alexandria Loutitt.

Overall World Cup, Four Hills Tournament, World Championship medals and team gold at the Olympics: Kraft has won almost everything in his career that you can win as a ski jumper. Unlike last season, when he suffered from back problems, the 31-year-old is in top shape this time.

“The body goes along with it, but it’s not that easy on the hill. I’d rather it be the other way around,” said Kraft. “I’m still trying a lot and looking for the philosopher’s stone for the tour.” Kraft showed that he is on the right track with third place in the last competition before the start in the Allgäu.

Last year’s tour runner-up wants to attack again this year. To achieve this, the 2018 Olympic champion has to improve significantly. The fluctuations in Wellinger’s performance are still too great this season. “I know that I can do it. I can’t always do it. That’s what I have to work for,” he said.

“But I know it’s possible. There’s not much missing. There are little things in my jump that don’t just add up to two or three meters, but then quickly to five, eight or ten.” The 29-year-old remains confident – true to his nature.

And what about Ryoyu Kobayashi?

The Japanese is a true touring expert. Kobayashi won the last edition of the tour as well as in 2022 and 2019. This season, however, things are not going well for the Beijing Olympic champion. Basically, you should never write off Kobayashi before a tour. Given that he has only finished in the top ten this season, it would be very surprising if the 28-year-old suddenly started again.