Javier Milei’s first year: Libertarian revolution or political turbulence?

The campaign of Javier Milei It was an ode to economic freedom, with a speech that appealed to a society where the market regulates daily life and the State has minimal participation. Among his main promises were the elimination of the Central Bank, the dollarization of the economy and a battery of cuts to public spending to reduce the fiscal deficit. In its first year, although it has made progress in reducing public spending—through adjustments in subsidies, paralysis of public works and layoffs in the state sector—its most radical proposals, such as dollarization, have not yet materialized. Political and technical resistance, added to an economy in crisis, has conditioned the complete implementation of his plan. Inflation remains high and confidence in the peso has not yet been fully restored.

Result: The reforms have been partial and expectations of immediate change have been met with a more complex and slower implementation than promised.

The relationship with Congress: a presidency without a majority

From the beginning, Javier Milei had to face a structural weakness: their own political space. Freedom Advances, it does not have a majority in Congress. This lack of parliamentary support has complicated the approval of key reforms for the government. Its first significant attempt was the so-called “Omnibus Law”, a package of measures to deregulate the economy and grant it extraordinary unconstitutional powers, which was rejected in February 2024 after intense negotiations and modifications. After this setback, Javier Milei has chosen to govern through decrees and direct confrontations with opposition legislators, whom he accuses of being part of “the caste.” This strategy has reinforced his image among his hard core voters, but has deepened political divisions.

Result: A government that advances with difficulty and that depends on circumstantial alliances, while its relationship with Congress remains tense and conflictive, significantly affecting governability.

The role of unions and social opposition

One of the biggest challenges for Milei has been the resistance of unions and social movements. His adjustment policies, such as the freezing of social plans, the reduction of transportation and energy subsidies, generated a direct impact on the working class and the most vulnerable sectors. In January 2024, the first general strike under his mandate paralyzed the country, as did the two university marches, demonstrating that the street is still a space of power, resistance and fundamental dispute.

Far from seeking consensus, Milei has responded with belligerent rhetoric, calling union leaders “mafiosi” and university students “coup plotters.” This confrontation has limited their room for maneuver and has generated an even deeper polarization than what already existed.

Conclusion: Union and social resistance has slowed down the advance of its most aggressive policies and has maintained a climate of constant tension with the risk of increasing.

The economy: recession and structural adjustments

Milei’s economic policy has focused on reducing public spending and controlling the fiscal deficit. However, the cost has been very high: an economic recession with falling consumption and increasing unemployment. Inflation, although it has shown signs of slowing down in some months, continues to be one of the highest in the world, closing the first year of government close to 200%.

Likewise, the cut in subsidies has skyrocketed public service rates, eroding the purchasing power of the middle and lower class. Furthermore, the promise of foreign investment has not yet materialized, largely due to the country’s political and economic uncertainty.

Economic balance: Although austerity measures have been taken, the social impact of these policies has been severe, and economic recovery is not yet visible.

Political communication: the disruptive style

Milei has maintained his confrontational and media style, using social networks to directly address his followers and disqualify his opponents. Its communication strategy is based on polarization and “anti-establishment”which has allowed it to maintain a loyal support base, but at the cost of generating constant tensions with more moderate sectors. Public insults, media fights, and unconventional language have reinforced his image as an outsider, but they have also damaged his ability to build the political consensus necessary to govern effectively.

Evaluation: His communication style is effective in maintaining the support of his voters, but limits his ability to unite the country or build a legislative majority that gives him governability.

International impact: Argentina isolated or in transformation?

At the international level, Milei has opted for a realignment with the United States and Israel, while he has criticized powers such as China and Brazil, two of Argentina’s main trading partners. His participation in international forums has been marked by controversial speeches and an ultraliberal stance that has made him a controversial figure in world politics.. This foreign policy has generated uncertainty about the future of the country’s commercial and financial relations. The lack of concrete agreements and aggressive rhetoric have left Argentina in a more isolated position.

Result: An ideological foreign policy that can limit not only the opportunities for international cooperation, but also puts our country on a complex international level and with international support conditioned by the United States.

Future outlook: What awaits Argentina under Milei?

Javier Milei faces a political and social crossroads that will determine the course of the country. Although it has managed to reduce the fiscal deficit and consolidate a loyal support base, the challenges are multiple and complex.

Economic recovery and social adjustment:

The Argentine economy remains in recession, with persistently high inflation and depressed consumption. If Milei fails to balance fiscal adjustment with economic recovery policies, social discontent could intensify. Furthermore, sectors such as retirees and public education and lower-income sectors require an urgent response to avoid further deterioration.

Building political consensus:

The lack of a parliamentary majority will continue to be a key obstacle. To implement deep structural reforms, Milei will have to decide whether to maintain his confrontational style or seek to build more stable political alliances. The success of your government will depend largely on your ability to negotiate and generate agreements.

Social legitimacy and governance:

Tensions with unions, social movements, universities and sectors of the middle class could deepen if adjustment policies do not show positive results in the short term. Milei’s ability to maintain social order without resorting to excessive repression will be crucial to its governability.

Investment and international trust:

Argentina needs to attract foreign investments and strengthen its commercial relations. Provocative rhetoric towards strategic partners such as China and Brazil could limit these opportunities. If Milei does not moderate its foreign policy, the country could become more isolated, further affecting its economy.

Possible scenarios:

Economic transformation with high social cost:

If Milei manages to implement its reforms and reduce the fiscal deficit, it could stabilize the economy at the cost of greater inequality and social unrest.

Failure due to internal resistance:

The lack of consensus and growing social opposition could paralyze his government, generating a political crisis and a possible interruption of his mandate.

Pragmatic turn:

Faced with difficulties, Milei could choose to moderate his speech and policies, seeking a balance between adjustment and social containment to avoid political collapse.

To conclude, we can point out that the first year of Javier Milei, It has been a mixture of radical promises, partial reforms and constant political and social confrontation. Although he has managed to reduce public spending and maintain a solid support base, the economic costs and lack of consensus have called into question the viability of his “libertarian revolution”. The future of the Milei government will depend on its ability to balance its libertarian vision with the demands of a society deeply affected by the crisis.

The second year will be crucial to determine if his management can be consolidated as a structural transformation, or if it will be remembered as another stage of instability in Argentine history. With Javier MileiArgentina is at a crossroads: will it continue down the path of adjustment and polarization, or will it be able to find a balance that allows for sustained growth and greater social cohesion? The answer to this crossroads today is completely open.