In turn, the former director of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) between 1987 and 1988 emphasizes that the exchange rate appreciation policy “generates different reactions in the different areas of activity”, but considers that this is a transitional regime, where President Javier Milei will aim for a “managed float”, which generates ““better conditions to get out of the trap”.
The challenges for the economy in 2025, according to Daniel Marx
Journalist: What challenges does the Government have for 2025?
Daniel Marx: The challenges have to do with consolidating the dynamics of the last months of last year, continuing with the reduction in the inflation rate and improvements in the level of activity. All of this will have to be faced with the evolution of the year in a more favorable context and in others a more complex one.
When I say more favorable I mean in terms of the consolidation of some fiscal numbers, of the same inflationary inertia, or even some movements of certain investment projects.
On the other hand, when I talk about a complex context I say it because of the fall in international prices of several exportable products from Argentina, disparity in the activity of the different sectors of Argentina, and this in a context of appreciation of the dollar and appreciation in real terms of the Argentine peso, where there will also be an attempt to lift the stocks (I imagine).
Q: Is there another way to consolidate the fiscal surplus, where retirees are no longer the protagonists of the adjustment in public accounts?
DM: the thickest work was done. When I talk about consolidating, I mean fine tuning. They are working on that part. In terms of fine tuning, there is a debt on the income side. A review of the tax structure is pending, we have a very high tax pressure, we need to expand the tax base of taxpayer payments with more appropriate taxes.
Q: You say that you imagine that this year they will be released from the stocks. To what extent do you see it possible?
DM.: It is an issue where the benefits exceed the costs. What do we call getting out of the stocks? It is not lifting everything at once, but rather lifting many of the restrictions. In that sense, I give particular importance to the trade movement, that both exports and imports have a more floating and free exchange rate in general terms.
Q: Once the stocks are eliminated, do you imagine a managed float or the continuity of exchange rate appreciation?
DM: It seems to me that the Government was redefining the message. That is: lately they are talking about a floating exchange rate with a defense of the peso and interest rates that do not imply a liquefaction of peso balances in terms of purchasing power or compared to the exchange rate, when before it was the peso As an objective it was not defended, rather one sought to marginalize it.
That, if so, generates better conditions for exiting the stocks, and conditions to explain a reserve accumulation policy and how managed or not that float will be.
Q: So you rule out dollarization within the economic program.
DM: In practice it does not have the emphasis it had before.
Q: If the Government is betting that inflation will be below 2%, why are there services that still increase twice that rate, such as prepaid or telecommunications?
DM: There are some who say that it is an issue of costs that were not covered before and now they intend to bring it to a more balanced level between income and expenses.
There are some who say that there should be more competition in all these areas of activity and thereby generate lower inflation.
Q: A year is coming where everything indicates that the flexibility of imports will deepen. Are you worried about the effect that this could have on employment?
DM: It is a particularly transitional year with a trade policy overlapping with a significant exchange rate appreciation. This generates different reactions in different areas of activity, it is a challenge how to at least manage this transition in areas that later become unsustainable. sustain this appreciation over time, Today we have a very strong appreciation of the peso, and with the new international context, Argentina should consider a policy of accumulation of reserves and therefore less exchange rate appreciation. Anywaywe seek to make employment more productive and competitive, and that is not immediate or automatic.
Source: Ambito
I am Pierce Boyd, a driven and ambitious professional working in the news industry. I have been writing for 24 Hours Worlds for over five years, specializing in sports section coverage. During my tenure at the publication, I have built an impressive portfolio of articles that has earned me a reputation as an experienced journalist and content creator.
