The pulse of the city: after the payment to the bondholders, where do the dollars that the Treasury injected into the market go?

On Thursday of last week, the portfolio of Luis Caputo faced its first major debt maturity. Pay interest and capital, both of Global as of Bonares, for US$4,341 million, which left a large amount of liquidity available to be reinvested. That is why the experts they think about where do they think those funds will go and describe what the bondholders began to do after collection.

For Juan Pedro MazzaFixed Income Strategist Cohen Financial Allies “While it cannot be determined precisely where the flow went, it is logical that go to the same instrument, although there are investors who chose to take it towards something more riskylike a Buenos Aires bonus, that pays a higher rate and yields 15%”.

Reinvestment in bonds is the most chosen thing in the city

For its part, Santiago Lopez Alfaropresident of Drachma Investments agreed with the analysis, maintaining that, among its clients, dollar bondholders who collected coupons reinvest as much in Bonares as in Global and also in Bopreales.

And, as Balanz stated, For those who have positions in Global GD38, GD41 and GD46, the suggestion is to continue invested in these same instruments. “The middle part of the curve (particularly GD35, GD38 and GD41) presents interesting opportunitieswith a potential increase of between 13% and 14% in the event that the country risk is compressed by 200 basis points,” they point out.

“Due to the amount and how the prices of all assets are (sovereign and sovereign), We see that there may be interest in going further along the curve of these instruments, especially, if you take into account that some negotiable obligations (although with shorter terms) are placed at lower rates these days,” he says Mauro Cognetta, partner at Global Focus Investments.

For him Investing in the Stock Market Group (IEB), meanwhile, the reinvestment could have “a significant impact” on the parities, given that they represent almost 7% of the ‘outstanding’. “There are estimates that indicate that approximately 55% of what is collected by private companies will be from investors abroad.“, they reported.

In turn, from the SBS Grouphighlighted that “the spreads compressed noticeably” and believe that, after the payment of coupons/amortizations corresponding to January, part of that flow could be reinvested in sovereign curves, which would deepen the compression of country risk.

CERs and Negotiable Obligations to diversify

Finally, Rafael Di Giorno, of Professionanalyzed: “People, for me, reinvested in long bonds and some converted to pesos and invested in bonds tied to CERwhich are the only ones that have risen a lot or fallen much less. He TX26, which was once CER + 10%, is now at CER +6%”.

On the other hand, in Balanz, Negotiable obligations (ON) under New York law also stand out. as an option to reinvest coupons. In this segment, they consider that The latest YPF Class 34 issue shows an upside potential close to 10%considering the same compression scenario in the risk rate.

“Our recommendation is based on two pillars: maintain positions in the mentioned Global securitieswhich look attractive in terms of carry and relative valuation, and take advantage of new corporate bond issues such as the recent one by YPF as a means of diversification with interesting performance potential,” they told this medium.

How the bond market reacted after the coupon payment

Regarding the dynamics of the bonds, Mazza asserted that it was to be expected that dollar bonds would not rise because “it was already discounted” through the market the payment of the coupon. “If you stop the day before and expect that tomorrow there will be an excess demand for this instrument, What it does is buy online the day before to sell it on the coupon payment date and, in some way, it already raises the price before“he explained.

“I think in the last wheels, Argentina could not compensate for the pressure of the international context with local drivers. The strength of the dollar and the yields of American Treasury bonds are making themselves felt. In this context, the payment of Bonares and Globales can be a positive factor for corporate debt, for example, but this is not alien to the international context either,” he told this medium. Andrés Reschini, from F2 Financial Solutions.

For its part, since SBS Grouphighlighted that the realization by the Central Bank (BCRA) of the REPO for US$1,000 million With a rate of 8.8% annually, it implies that the sovereign could easily operate at lower levels if the economy normalizes.

That said, they highlight how clue for Argentina’s re-entry into international markets the exit of the stocks. Finally, “regarding debt in dollars, we highlight that the IMF confirmed the start of talks with Argentina for a new program, negotiations that according to the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, could be closed in the 1st quarter of 2025. Within these, we believe that currency issues will be at the center of the scene (exit from the stocks, continuity or not ‘USD Blend’ and accumulation of RRNN, among others)”.