The exports brazilian of corn and soy would end January above initial forecasts, according to figures published Tuesday by the National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC). This scenario contrasts with that of the Argentine market, which is the main regional adversary.
The country’s corn shipments are now estimated at 3.53 million tonscompared to the 2.98 million projection of the previous week.
While, exports of soybeans would reach 2.22 million tons in Januaryslightly above the 2.19 million estimated a week ago.
The forecast for the soy flour volume to board this month remained practically stable in 1.81 million tons this monthwhile exports of wheat They increased slightly to 689,278 tons, compared to the 662,090 projected a week ago.
Uncompetitive dollar, climate and Brazilian devaluation: Argentina’s cons in the cereal market
He hot and dry climate Argentina played a bad role in cereals, since last week operators monitored the forecasts for the growing areas. Furthermore, it also plays against uncompetitive exchange rate.
The current problem, according to the “Productive Engine” of Mediterranean Foundationthe thing is the current “crawling peg” exchange rate regimewith pre-established fixed monthly depreciations, around 2% monthly and which as of February will become 1% of the nominal exchange rate, which had a good result in the macroeconomic stabilization process, but not for the cereal market .
The thing is, this managed devaluation eliminates the possibility of a devaluation; that is, of an exchange correction that aim to quickly improve the economic equation of the export sector. In this context, Brazil is growing, which with a devalued real, can take even more of the market away from Argentina.
“The correct and sustainable alternative to recover the competitiveness of a sector complicated by falling prices and strong currency is to advance in the elimination of DEXs, and in all those reforms that allow increasing productivity and aligning internal prices of inputs and goods. capital with its international reference values,” the report states.
Source: Ambito
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