What lessons does Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration leave behind?

What lessons does Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration leave behind?

Gordon Gekko: The silver age, if we call what Biden left behind that, was already very good in itself. It’s not going to be easy to overcome it. Now, Trump did not make any specific mention of his strong idea of ​​​​applying tariffs unabated. Nothing that was disruptive. It’s clear to me that he doesn’t want to ruin it either.

GG: I don’t. And neither does Wall Street, judging by the strong increases in the stock market last week, and the decline in long rates. Tariffs took a back seat a long time ago. And also China.

Q: Trump spoke by phone with Xi Jinping a few days before, and the communication, he said, was very constructive.

GG: China first moved into the background, and in recent days, even, to a cordial level. There is no better example than the Tik Tok saga. The president today is his best lawyer.

Gordon-Gekko Dialogues

Q: Did the agenda with China change with respect to the confrontation of your first term? Or in the campaign?

GG: I don’t think so. The forms may have changed, but not the substance. The people also changed. He is not the same Trump as eight years ago. That, at this point, is beginning to become evident. And in this government there is not (Robert) Lighthizer, his trade hawk (but rather his deputy, Jamieson Greer, with zero visibility). Not even Peter Navarro, even if it’s just to make noise. But, make no mistake, China is an obsession that we already saw goes beyond presidents and parties.

Q: You can change the approach, the strategy, but not the purpose of stopping the rise of China.

GG: That’s how it is. You don’t have to be so anxious either. If Trump talks with Xi Jinping, those who can bite later are his officials. In Trump’s first term, don’t forget, the trade war began the last two years, when control of Congress was lost. The last word has not been said at all.

Q: One listened to Lighthizer, a year ago, and what he had prepared was a relentless commercial operation. Not only against China, which did bear the brunt.

GG: That was going to be executed from day one, according to candidate Trump.

Q: That plan no longer exists. Or am I wrong?

GG: Those people, except Greer, did not make it to the cabinet. The plan of Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the Treasury, was always different, but trade and tariffs were not the heart of his message. Stephen Miran has a plan. Kevin Hasset, too. But when there are three plans floating around, there are none. And that void, which will have to be filled, and which will be covered, is the main signal left by the presidential inauguration.

Q: A Trump who barks but doesn’t bite?

GG: That the Panama Canal can bite, that José Mulino doesn’t answer the phone…

Q: To whom?

GG: To your president. While talking with Xi Jinping. It is one thing to fight with North Korea, Iran and China and another to choose Panama, Denmark and Canada, three friendly countries. And, in fact, Trump refrained from attacking the latter two in his speech. He is the fierce leader as always, but he chose significantly smaller rivals. It is one thing to raise the specter of a universal trade war and another to deport immigrants. The belligerence quota was covered, but it seems that with pleasure, little by little. And that is why today (yesterday) the idea of ​​escalating tariffs to 25% for imports from Mexico and Canada was put on the table. But it is what had already been outlined in November. Where are the details?

Q: They are not there. But, in time, you say, they will emerge.

GG: That’s how it is. Do you remember James Carville, Bill Clinton’s advisor?

Q: The one who wanted to reincarnate in the bond market, because the interest rates would bend anyone’s arm.

GG: He was very right. Trump made a speech tailored to Wall Street. Lavage of relevant complications. It was either that or deal a terrible blow and let long rates attack the 5% threshold.

Q: Or go look for the S&P 500 below what it was worth when the election was defined.

GG: Both things. Trump had nothing to gain from this show of force, except to ruin the inauguration. Whatever you want to do, you can do it if you are sensible, have patience, and your people have a minimum of expertise. He inherited the Golden Age that promises. He received it from Biden, financed with debt. Bad can start by ruining the bond market. Trump has already shown that he can turn the things he touches into gold. But not just anything, not all the time, you have to use the tricks.

Q: Do you think so?

GG: He did it with his memecoin $TRUMP. But it’s not Einstein. Melania’s memecoin was already a net loss. He also showed that he can melt into running a casino.

Q: And several times.

GG: He is a great communicator, he is not a great administrator. He has an agenda that is very popular and personal. But you will have to separate the chaff from the wheat, and grade out the components that are toxic if you don’t want to or can silence them completely. But now he has a wild card that he did not have in his first government – ​​Elon Musk, who has plenty of talent –. We’ll have to see if he can put it together. On the move, Musk was already left alone with the handling of the chainsaw. Vivek Ramaswamy was left out. And Trump bought the idea of ​​colonizing Mars. An agenda like this is great and will not complicate anyone’s digestion. At least as long as the Martians don’t get irritated.

Source: Ambito

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