Global markets: US trade deficit and deceleration in Europe mark the day

With the policy of the Federal Reserve in pause until the middle of the year and the results of the Megacapitizations They threw a disparate performance, the stock markets remained stable during the night while the attention of the global markets is aimed at interest rates in Europe and the review of the GDP of the fourth quarter in the US.

The quarterly results of Microsoft (msft.o) and goal (goal) After the closing of Wednesday they generated different reactions, amid the uncertainty about artificial intelligence, especially after the revelation of Deepseek In China.

With the high expense of both companies, questioned by the arrival of a cheaper Chinese model, but defended by their respective managers, Microsoft’s actions fell 4% in out -of time operations, while the target rose 4%. Investors showed concern about the perspective of Microsoft’s cloud business, but they accepted the good finish lines without reservations.

Tesla (tsla.o), meanwhilerose 4% after announcing plans To launch cheaper models this year, which compensated a drop in their profits. Apple and Intel head another key day of earnings on Thursday.

Fed futures remained largely unchanged, reflecting the expectation of another cut towards the middle of the year, only 20% probability of an anticipated reduction in March and a total of two cuts by 2025.

However, the yields of the Treasury bonds have fallen from the Fed decision, partly due to signs of an economic slowdown at the end of last year and the downward trend of interest rates globally.

The Canada Bank cut its reference rate in a quarter quarter on Wednesday, citing among other factors the threat of Trump’s tariffs for the economy. It is widely expected that the European Central Bank also reduces its key rate in 25 basic points on Thursday.

Trade deficit

While investors expect the publication of GDP data of the Fourth Quarter of the USA later on Thursday, Wednesday’s news about a strong expansion of the international commercial deficit led to recalibrating some estimates on economic growth at the beginning of 2024.

The Commercial Deficit of US goods reached a record level in December, which led to the “GDPnow” model of the Atlanta Federal Reserve to adjust its 2.3% GDP growth estimate, below the previous 3.2%.

GDP growth forecasts before the commercial report pointed to an annualized rate of 2.6% for the last quarter, below the 3.1% registered between July and September. Even so, the economy continues to grow above 1.8% that those responsible for the Fed consider sustainable without generating inflation. Annual growth is expected to close 2.8%, just below 2.9% registered in 2023.

The 10 -year treasure bond yield January 2, with an year -on -year decrease of 7% for the first time in a month.

The dollar index (.dxy) remains stable, while the euro dropped slightly before the expected ECB rates cut.

The decision of the ECB is expected

In contrast to the solid growth of the US, the disappointing data of the GDP from Germany and France In the fourth quarter they have reinforced the expectations of more stimuli from the ECB.

The German economy contracted more than expected in the last quarter of 2023, with a 0.2% drop compared to the previous quarter, amid commercial concerns and uncertainty to federal elections next month. France also surprised with a contraction, due to political and fiscal problems.

Italy stagnated, leaving Spain as the only economy among the four large of the euro zone with positive growth in the fourth quarter.

A hint of optimism came from an improvement in economic confidence in the Eurozone in January and the expectation of new ECB stimuli, which promoted European actions 0.5% on Thursday.

This, despite some blows in the reports of results of large European companies. Deutsche Bank (Dbkgn.de) fell 6% after reporting a drop in his earnings of the fourth quarter and full year. Stmicroelectronics (STMPA.PA), one of Europe’s largest chips manufacturers, collapsed 8% to its lowest level in almost five years after emitting a weak forecast for the first quarter.

With commercial uncertainty at the center of concerns, the possibility of a new wave of Trump tariffs as soon as next week remains high, although officials have hinted at the possibility of negotiation and reviews until April 1.

The nominated for Trump’s Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, said that Canada and Mexico could avoid 25% tariffs on US imports if they act quickly to stop the entry of fentanyl and illegal immigrants to the US.