The commercial balance with the neighboring country deteriorated at the beginning of 2025. The balance of the automotive sector explained a good part.
In January 2025, The bilateral commercial deficit with Brazil reached US $ 326 million, the highest since 2018. The balance of the automotive sector, in a context of greater import incentive, explained a good part of the result.
The Imports From Brazil they totaled US $ 1,212 million in the first month of the year, registering an increase of 57.9% year -on -year compared to the same month of 2024. In particular it is worth highlighting the strong traction provided by automotive imports in the first month of the year of the year ; In the aggregate, these increases explain 57% of the annual increase.
As for Exports To the neighboring country, they reached US $ 886 million in the first month of 2025, showing an annual rise of 11.3%. Among the products of greater participation in the total, the dynamics was heterogeneous: the automotive sector, agriculture and meat showed weak performance, while sales of the chemical and petrochemical industry showed robust performance.
“For the rest of 2025 we hope that the bilateral deficit between Argentina and Brazil will be significantly amplified and probably leads US $ 4,000 million with imports that hardly grow less than 30% (to the environment of US $ 18,000 million as a floor) and exports rising but less (+11% /13% per year) “, predicted the consultant Abeceb
“On the Argentine sidethe main drivers will first be the economic recovery of Argentina, traced by consumption and investment, especially considering that the bilateral balance is structurally deficient. To this is added a rebound of imports after being compressed both by the controls and restrictions that are being removed (for example, the partial deregulation of recently announced auto parts), as well as by the country tax, which was recently eliminated, as well as The removal of tariffs and controls. The last weight factor will be the Argentine exchange rate appreciation, which with the decline of the ‘crawling’ 1% was probably accentuated something else in the remainder of the year, “said the consultant.
On the Brazilian sidehe added, “the partial reversal of the depreciation of the real in the second half of January (from a peak of 6.1 per dollar to R $ 5.8 at the end of the month) without a doubt brought some relief in Argentine competitiveness (in fact The actual multilateral exchange rate depreciated something in January thanks to the revaluation of the Brazilian real, recovering the lost terrain in December) but it is expected that the Brazilian real will remain weakened in the remainder of the year. “
Source: Ambito
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