A vote that reflected the criolla policy grid

Pole position

La Libertad advances He got the pole position, that is, start in the first place. If the checkered flag will go down the day of the elections, when telegrams arrive in the mail from the voting centers, the ruling begins with more chances of winning. Of course, The race is long, And there are rivals, non -forced errors, climatic conditions, strategic decisions, delays in boxes.

Javier Milei held his allies. Radicals that set the wig, the MID satellite and, above all, the wills of the pro who, despite the attempts to empty it from leaders, at the time of the bifes continues to accompany the president. Sand reserve the Mauricio Macri party its potential damage powerperhaps its main capital at this time.

But, in addition, despite the fact that the disinterest for having a border budget of certainty to the provinces, the governors returned to the foot. With headquarters in doubt, each one attends his game, with an open window at the Casa Rosada. The Cordoba Martín Llaryora, the Catamarque Raúl Jalil and, in a more surprising way, the Santiago Gerardo Zamora, the Cordoba, were key to the vote, who “is not as far from the government as it seems,” as indicated in Balcarce 50 regarding a stable union ally for the country (UP). Santiago del Estero is one of the two provinces that this year will choose governor (the other is Corrientes), and Zamora points to shielding the district for the continuity of his Civic Front.

While the commission opinion was unlocking for the text to reach the enclosure, the Cabinet Headquarters that Guillermo Francos commanded a meeting with provincial leaders. Among them, other dialoguists: The Salteño Gustavo Sáenz, the Tucumano Osvaldo Jaldo, the jujeño Carlos Sadir or the missionary Hugo Passalacqua. A first reading: it is not novelty that the governors negotiate in the Casa Rosada with guarantees in Congress as currency. But for a government without their own leaders and who also does not hesitate to make them feel rigor, the test is renewed, in general with a favorable result.

In addition, Francos marked the territory. He is no stranger to what happens in Congress and remains one of Milei’s swords, in a government not exempt from internal.

PJ: internal and fragmentation

The great novelty with respect to 2024 arrived in the main opposition space. Converted into a parliamentary party, Peronism until here had had cohesion in the enclosurea point no less after the hard electoral defeat of 2023. Now, in the first vote of the year, there was a fragmentation: positive, negative, absent votes, absences.

It can be claimed that there are positions found within the PJ with respect to the primary. Even that Kirchnerism is good for the suspension. What to settle at the polls what can be resolved with the pen in the hands of Cristina. In this, beyond principles statements, they all close according to conjunctural convenience. Even the government, beyond the argument of the unnecessary expenditure of the electoral act, benefits whether the closure remains in the fist of Milei and his sister Karina. Perhaps, in another future instance, it may say that it does not matter if democracy benefits. Caste fluctuations.

Without deviations, the PJ team needs an order that Cristina does not seem to have given him since the presidency of the party. If the division is projected in the vote of their deputies to the stages of the electoral year, the omens are bad. The same governors who did not participate in their assumption in the party, who remain in an expressive silence for months, now managed autonomy. Even, there were respectful rebellion conatos, such as that of Senator Marcelo Lewandowski, who refused to lead Santa Fe Peronism.

Those who get excited, or excited, with the leadership of Axel Kicillof as a group of the PJ no k also believe that the suspension of the passage gives air to the Buenos Aires governor To unfold the local elections, an affront to Kirchnerism, which asks to nationalize the provincial campaign. The cases of insecurity, which from La Plata tried to counteract with the coldness of the statistics, added pressure and led to the suspension of the political act provided for Mar del Plata. Kicillof receives darts of their own and others.

It also weighs the situation in each province. It is always good to remember that in rigor it is not a choice, but twenty -four. It is not the same Santa Fe, where the PJ is atomized to the extreme and the passage can be a computer to avoid a diasporathat the Pampa or La Rioja, where the governors prefer to have control of what happens in their payments.

A CRISOL. Aspirations, ruptures, conveniences, sets that leave Fertile land for freedom progresses.

Yellow and white berets, in trouble

He PRO He remained near the ruling, as he closed 2024. A parliamentary guarantee that is, first of all, a letter of intentions. Of course, in the yellow seal, bishops coexist Patricia Bullrich, that strictly are more violet, and those who respond to Mauricio Macri. A difficult coexistence if one takes into account that the Minister of Security tops the Operation Seduction to sign the passes of the Pro A lla.

Had begun aggressively, with the signing of the mayors Diego Valenzuelaof three of February, and Ramiro Egüenof May 25. This Saturday added the third card, although of less symbolic weight: Fernanda Astorinoby Captain Sarmiento.

The libertarians hurried the signing, before the Pro Bonaerense of the PRO, scheduled for February 17, which hopes to be a containment dike, and after the announcement that Diego Santilli and María Eugenia Vidal add to the team of the Buenos Aires Mayor Jorge Macriwho brings together the pure pro. Macri’s party is also a polvorín, and remains to see if the favors in the parliamentary plane translate into an electoral alliance.

The radicalism postcard is another symptom. The two blocks that were divided into 2024 (Not counting Mario Barletta’s monobloc, who was absent at the time of voting) also had different positions on the board. The official, friendly and majority space, endorsed the suspension of the passage in large numbers, but also had negative abstentions and votes. He looked for that radicalism to perspire to the government when he was looking for the opinion, but the firms that the white berets reached them obtained by Milei by the hand of governors close to Peronism.

Democracy forever, opposing profile, ended up approving, but also had abstentions and absences. The internal of radicalism expressed itself in Congress. While there was in the end a greater number of deputies who bowed to the suspension of the step, the differences were clear in the debate.

If at the time of voting there were certain coincidences, it is also for a practical issue: they know those who try to build a path of the medium that between the primaries and the generals the society tends to polarize. And therefore, lean towards a useful vote that punishes them. Everything seems to indicate that the UCR and the federals (less organic, as always) will pay that footprint.