The dollar and inflation take over the City Agenda: what do the CEPO output analysts think

Analysts think about the future of the country’s economy waiting for news about a potential agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Thursday, the INDEC will announce the January inflation index. The government estimates that it will be around 2.3%, maintaining a descending path. On the other hand, global tensions against US tariff pressures make analysts fear a commercial war of great proportions.

The dollar and the exchange rate, on the agenda of the analysts

“The exchange rate, although it has contained the output of currencies, has generated distortions in the economy and is a ballast so that it can deploy its full potential, particularly in the field of investment,” said José María Segura of PWC.

“An abrupt survey of the stock could have negative consequences in the exchange rate and on inflation. Therefore, it is expected that during 2025 a gradual flexibility of the CEPO will be advanced, accompanied by measures that strengthen international reserves and provide certainty to the Investors, “he estimated.

“All the speculation that is made about how much ‘up front’ disbursement can be that the IMF can do above the capital and interest payments that the BCRA has committed to that institution, They are relevant in relation to the meaning of support for government economic management, But they will not mean an increase in net reserves such as the one needed to be able to eliminate the exchange rate, “former Minister of Economy Domingo Cavallo said.

“Right in the days that was most discussed in the media on whether there is exchange delay, the BCRA had a very good week buying almost US $ 600 million. Thus, as long as reservations are still being purchased, If there is delay or does not become a rather theoretical issue “Roberto Geretto de Adcap estimated.

“After a long period of recoil of the” counted with liquidation “, the buying pressures (of currency) led to the pass of 1,050 pesos per dollar in the first week of December, to 1,200 currently. This resulted in an increase in sales by part of the BCRA, which between December and mid -January used 944 million dollars in this way “Said Gma.

“The very weak macro profile of Argentina (positive CAA3) reflects the difficult conditions for banks, characterized by a relatively large economy and an internal gross product (GDP) per capita high that hide underlying vulnerabilities, such as volatile growth, high inflation and shocks Frequent economics, “said Moody´s rating.

“Argentina remains exposed to risks derived from government liquidity and external vulnerabilities due to limited financing options and insufficient reserves,” he said.

Expectation in investments

“We consider the Hard dollar debt with a medium -term visionin a context where the government manages to maintain the reform agenda, and advance in the standardization and deregulation of the economy, “said Capital Markets Argentina.

For the Treasury “the main challenge continues to concentrate on the first semester, while the second half of the year looks clearer, a relevant factor for the mid -term elections,” said Delphos Investment.

“In tune with what was last year, during January 2025, The actions of the financial sector led the Merval’s increasesdriven by an exchange rate much more stable than the previous years and a clear slowdown in inflation that is particularly beneficial for companies in this area, “said Iol (invest online).

“The BCRA will be prudent in new casualties at the rate (monetary policy) until There are not enough observations of a new decline in the inflationn, and for this we will have to wait for at least one more week, the differential between the short and long section of the pesos curve leads us rather to take profits of all those positions that waited for the decline of the BCRA and be positioned in instruments until August “, The Neix compensation and settlement agent said.