Dollar, Inflation and GDP: The projections of 40 banks and consultants in the middle of the $ Libra case

The projections For the dollar, Inflation and GDP They were adjusted to the decline, despite the previous expectations that suggest a more pronounced devaluation. A global survey made by More than 40 economistsnational and international consultants and banks details how it will evolve The exchange rate Until December 2025, in a context of financial volatility and pressures on exchange markets, exacerbated by the $ Libra scandal.

Focus Economics analysis emphasizes that Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) He opted for a monthly depreciation rate of the official exchange rate of 1% since February, after a devaluation of 2% was previously allowed.

This policy, framed within a sliding scheme (Crawling PEP), is a key factor in the projections of the dollar, which is expected to weaken with respect to current levels. According to Focus Economics estimates, the wholesale dollar would reach $ 1,311 for December 2025which represents an increase close to 24% from its current contribution.

This figure exceeds the official projection of the government, which in its budget provides for a dollar to $ 1,207, but is below the highest estimates, such as those of S&P Global Ratingsthat predict a change rate of up to $ 1,800.

At the level of local consultants, expectations vary significantly. Abeceb is one of the most conservative, projecting a dollar at $ 1,175, while other actors such as Consulting Analytics estimate that it could reach $ 1,439. Similarly, between banks, Banco Galicia and Banco Supervielle estimate a value close to $ 1,175, while Santander projects $ 1,300. These estimates show a downward trend compared to previous reports, since the prognosis of three months ago placed the dollar at $ 1,541.

The projections of the 40 gurú on the dollar

• S&P Global Ratings – $ 1,800
• Fitch Ratings – $ 1,563
• Balances – $ 1,550
• Barclays Capital – $ 1,550
• Empiria Consultores – $ 1,535
• Economics Capital – $ 1,500
• LCG – $ 1,452
• Inveco Consulting – $ 1,450
• Mapfre Economics – $ 1,440
• Consulting Analytica – $ 1,439
• Citigroup Global MKTS – $ 1,427
• Economviews – $ 1,410
• UBS – $ 1,400
• OJF & Associates – $ 1,391
• BBVA Research – $ 1,380
• Oxford Economics – $ 1,376
• Standard Chartered – $ 1,350
• E2 Economy – $ 1,305
• Santander – $ 1,300
• JPMorgan – $ 1,300
• Economosignal – $ 1,288
• Fitch Solutions – $ 1,250
• Econometric – $ 1,250
• Fmya – $ 1,239
• Itaú Unibanco – $ 1,220
• MAP – $ 1,217
• CREDICORP CAPITAL – $ 1,200
• Aurum values – $ 1,200
• Faithful – $ 1,196
• Moody’s Analytics – $ 1,187
• Quantum Finance – $ 1,182
• EMFI – $ 1,178
• Ecolatina – $ 1,176
• Eco Go – $ 1,175
• Abeceb – $ 1,175
• Bank of Galicia – $ 1,175
• VDC Consultant – $ 1,175
• Supervielle Bank – $ 1,169
• Eiu – $ 1,168
• C&T Advisors – $ 1,166
• Allianz – $ 1,100
• Pecco Economics – $ 1,060
• Consensual price – $ 1,311

What do the gurús say about inflation

The report also analyzes the evolution of inflation in Argentina, which has shown a considerable deceleration in the first months of 2025. In January, the interannual inflation rate was reduced to 84.5%, from 117.8% registered in December 2024reaching the lowest level since September 2022.

This decrease is expected to continue due to a high comparison base, the implemented fiscal austerity measures, trade liberalization and tax cuts. In this context, the consultants project that inflation in 2025 will be around 28.8%, a significant decrease with respect to elevated levels of recent years.

In terms of monetary policy, the BCRA began to make its position more flexible. At the end of January, it reduced its monetary policy rate from 32% to 29%, with the expectation of continuing additional flexibility towards the closure of 2025, which would boost credit and investment. According to Focus Economics analysts, the monetary policy rate is expected to close 2025 in 27.02%, with an even lower projection by 2026, of 18.47%.

What do the guru say about GDP

On the other hand, the projections on the economic growth of Argentina point to an expansion of the Gross Internal Product (GDP) of 4.5% in 2025, which represents a slight increase with respect to the previous forecast of 4.4%. GDP would continue its growth in 2026, with an estimate of 3.6%. This growth is supported by the moderation of inflationary pressures and the strictest fiscal and monetary policies, which could generate a more stable environment for investment and consumption.

The report also considers social and political tensions, but highlights that, despite uncertainty, the policies adopted by the government of Javier Milei, which has reiterated its confidence in the fall of the dollar, remain within a gradual stabilization strategy . However, it is underlined that the stability of alternative exchange rates and the possible correction of market expectations will continue to be key points for the evolution of the Argentine economy in the coming months.