Nations League: That is why the duel against Portugal is important for the World Cup

Julian Nagelsmann absolutely wants to win the title in the Nations League. The performance of the final tournament is also of serious importance for the national coach with a view to the 2026 World Cup.

If the national soccer team wins the UEFA competition, it collects so many points for the world rankings that the important place in the best lottery pot for the final round is practically safe in the coming summer.

But: If there is already a defeat in the semi -finals on Wednesday (9:00 p.m./ZDF and DAZN) against Portugal in Munich, the remote duel with Italy may also be lost around the last place in pot 1.

The consequence: Germany would only be in pot 2 at the World Cup draw in December. In the group phase, a strong opponent like Spain, Argentina, France or England would be very likely. Alternatively, Group A with co-host Mexico would also threaten, including unpleasant temperatures and venues.

Nagelsmann had already warned in March in front of this scenario when the late compensation to 3: 3 in direct duel with Italy in Dortmund was played over to the competitor to the important place nine in the world rankings. In Pot 1, in addition to the hosts USA, Canada and Mexico, the best nine teams in the world ranking will be.

One thing is certain, it has to be expected. Because the ranking, which is relevant for the WM set pots, is calculated with a complicated formula. Each game flows into a certain weighting.

With a victory against Portugal in the regular season, Germany (1716.98 points) would climb to 1730.27 points due to the 13.29 points won and in any case overtake Italy. The Squadra Azzurra (1718.31) can only get 7.49 points in its World Cup qualification game against Norway on Friday and initially reach 1725.80 points.

Already a defeat in the possible final of the Nations League against Spain or France, the DFB team would again bring in minus points. Italy could pass again a day later with a win against Moldau. The world rankings are decisive for the draw after completing the World Cup qualification games.

Holland and Croatia also mix. The Netherlands (1752.44), Portugal (1750.08) and Belgium (1735.75) can still be obtained in places six to eight. From behind, however, Croatia (1698.66) and Morocco (1694.24) lurk, which, however, can no longer collect many points in their World Cup qualification rounds.

Regardless of the calculations, European countries still have to qualify for the World Cup finals. In its group, Germany meets Slovakia, Northern Ireland and Luxembourg in the second half of the year.