Inflation: consultants predict it will reach 4% in September, for the first time in the Javier Milei era

The inflation would slow down again in Septemberaccording to the estimates of the private consultantsafter climbing slightly in August and staying above the 4%, something that has been happening since May. Even though he Consumer Price Index (CPI) I would drill that key figure -which the Government is looking forward to-, price pressure continues regulated about the average data. Forwards, variation could ease thanks to lower costs of two key services.

He market expects that in September the inflation is at 3.5%according to the last Survey of Market Expectations (REM) published earlier this month. This Friday, the Central Bank (BCRA) will announce the new forecasts of the city’s gurus.

The private consultants have already given their verdict: they expect September inflation to be the lowest so far in the Government of Javier Mileiless than 4%. The majority expects the price variation to reach 4%, although the majority position it at 3.8%, 0.4 percentage points (pp) below the August CPI (+4.2%).

How much do private consultants estimate the CPI for September?

Analytics It projected that the CPI for September would be 3.8%. “Our measurement of food and beverages indicated that the prices of that item grew at the same rate as in August,” said the economist and director of the consulting firm. Claudio Caprarulo.

For its part, from C&T, for its measurement of the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA), estimated that retail prices showed an increase of 3.5% in September, with a core at 3.8%below the 4.8% August and the 4.3% of the survey of National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC).

The sectors that most drove inflation in September, according to C&T, were Transportation and Communications due to the residual effect of the increase in tickets in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (AMBA)in mid-August in the case of buses, and in September for trains. The increase in health, above average, was also highlighted due to medication and prepaid adjustments. Food and drinksFor their part, they rose 3.2% monthly, slightly more than in August.

“In the second week of the month there was a significant moderation in the pace of price increases, linked especially to the goods component, which suggests a favorable impact of the reduction of the PAIS tax”highlighted from the consulting firm led by María Castiglioni and Camilo Tiscornia.

For its part, the consulting firm that usually comes closest to the final data, Eco Goprojected that the inflation would be located in the 3.5%, with a sharp rise in regulated (+4.2%), while the seasonal they advanced 1.2% and the corewhich discounts the two previous variables, increased 3.7%, a 0.1pp below the previous one.

This consultant agreed that The increase in regulated prices was due to the increase in the price of fuel, transportation and prepaid bills.

Meanwhile, Labor, Capital & Growth (LCG)reported that the weekly variation in food remained in line with what happened the previous week and The average monthly increase was 2.4% and in the end-to-end measurement in 1.9% from the last 4 weeks.

October inflation: it could slow further due to the decline in two key prices

Forwards, inflation pressures would ease thanks to the lowering of the gas rate for the summer season and fuels due to the drop in the international price of oil.

Starting in October, the national government made official a 10% reduction in the price of gasbut at the same time it enabled an increase of almost 3% in the cost of transportation and distribution, so lower prices are expected. 20% average on invoices.

Meanwhile, YPF reported that as of this Tuesday the The price of gasoline will drop by 4% and diesel by 5% on average throughout the countryalthough it will only be reflected just 1% in gasoline and 2% in diesel, product of the monthly devaluation 2% weight (“crawling peg”) and the 1% fuel tax increase.

He Executive indicates that the decline in inflation forward help to lower the povertywhich in the first semester of his administration reached more than half of the population (52.9%), while the indigence affected the 18.1% of the Argentines.