Inflation: For four and a half years it is above 2% monthly, will the streak be cut in February?

Inflation January will be located again above 2%, What marks the difficulties of the economic team to lower a step, to a figure that begins with one. To go that level, you have to go back to July 2020, when it was 1.9%.

In the Ministry of Economy They anticipate that the consumer price index of the first month of the year was 2.3%which implies 4 months in a row above the “Crawling Peg” of 2% of the Central Bank. Luis Caputo confirmed it last night in an interview.

From February, with the reduction of the monthly devaluation rhythm to 1%, the government aspires to break the threshold, although they remain in front of the pricing of services that hinder the task.

It should be remembered that The 3% monthly floor for the CPI broke out in October 2024, When it went to 2.7%. In November it was reduced to 2.4% and on December it returned to 2.7%.

It is unquestionable that if the government wants Force disinflation in the electoral year It has to reduce the rhythm of devaluation and postpone some tariff increases.

One of the elements that will play in favor is that in January of this year taxes were not charged to imports, And therefore, foreign products will show a decline.

“According to our estimates (85% of surveys of more than 130,000 prices and 15% economic models), Both the IPC general level and the CSI core rose 2.1%, ”says the consultant balances.

The economist of the consultancy Gonzalo Carrera said in this regard that “After December meat shock, inflation would descend led by low food and drinks.”

“In addition to this, the elimination of the country tax would promote Inflation of goods to the 1.5% and Services could pierce 4% for the first time since February 2022, ”he explained.

For its side, the last survey of Ecogo Consultores shows that in January retail prices registered an average variation of 2.3%, Monthly, in line with what was expected by the economic team, after being 2.7% in an exceptional month such as December.

According to the consultant, the stable result is explained largely for the lower increases in rates and for the intervention in the gap in the face of the greatest demand for dollars. He also detailed in X that the food and beverage item showed 2.1% monthly last month.

In terms of food price survey, A report from the Argentine Political Economy Center (CEPA) indicates, based on data from the Central Market of Buenos Aires that “in January, the weighted average of the segment of the 6 species of best -selling vegetables in the MCBA showed a slight rise in 0.2% prices compared to last month. ”

The work indicates that “the evolutionary trend of the index would cause a 18.8% reduction in the vegetables, tubers and legumes of the IPC compared to December 2024 ”.

“In this way, the panderer of the division ALiments and non -alcoholic beverageswhich is 2.2% in the CPI, would show a 0.4% drop in January prices ”, toñade the strain.

Work indicates that “The segment of the 4 most marketed fruits in the MCBA showed an increase in weighted prices of 22.3% compared to December 2024, which allowsand project an increase in the price of IPC fruits segment of 23.4%”.

“This impacts the order of 1.3% of the IPC food division, Therefore, it would indicate a 0.3% bullish trend in the fruits of January CPI, ”says the study.