The inflation of the workers was 2.5% in January and in 12 months it accumulated almost 90%

The workers inflation It was located in the 2.5% In January, which represented a deceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to December review index (2.9%) and touched its lowest level from August 2020according to the measurement of the Institute of Workers Statistics (IET) of the UMET. The interannual variation was from 88.9%the lowest record since October 2022.

The largest item in January was “Recreation and culture “, with the 7.4% increase. This was mostly due to the rise of 27.6% In tourist packagescoinciding with the high summer season. At the other extreme was “Dress and footwear garments” with a decrease of 0.8%, influenced by the ongoing commercial opening.

The IET coordinator, Fabián Amicohe said that “The deflationary success of the government is based mainly on the anchor of the official exchange rate. The sustainability of the exchange rate is the key to disinflation, even more in an electoral year. “

In that line, he said that “since the beginning of the year the Central Bank (BCRA) He lost about 3.5 billion dollars of his reserves, whose net amount remains in negative terrain. While this trend was partially reversed in February, negotiation with the IMF appears bogged down and, with very different arguments, a growing consensus is generated about the insubstability of exchange policy, which generates uncertainty regarding the future of the Inflation dynamics, key fact in social evolution (poverty, wages) and therefore in the levels of political consensus that the government still holds ”.

Changes in the methodology of the workers inflation index

Unlike National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC)the IET updated its methodology for this measurement, taking into account the consumption patterns of the last National Household Expenditure Survey (ENGHO) of 2017-2018.

“There is more and more coincidence between analysts that there is a significant methodological underestimation in the measurement of INDEC due to the very low weighting of the prices of public services in the index, which does not happen in the CPI that the government of the government calculates CABA, ”said the executive director of the CCD and former Minister of Education, Nicolás Trotta.

In that sense, the former government official said that the Inflation of 2024 would not be 117.8%, but would be closer to the 136% measuring the Institute of Buenos Aires Statistics and Census. This would imply an index of 18.2 more percentage points. “If that were inflation, the salary of the registered sector (public and private) in real terms would be in December 2024 the same as in December 2023, that is, the supposed improvements would have evaporated. And this without counting the sector Informal, in which case the real average would be even lower, “Trotta estimated.

January inflation was higher for higher income households

January inflation was higher in homes with higher income than in lower incomesince in decil 10 (10% more wealthy), it was 3.05%, while in decil 1 (10% of lower income) of 2.13%. “This is due to the greatest weight of tourism in the consumption of the most wealthy households,” they explained from the IET.

Likewise, the document emphasizes that “when looking inflation according to the branch of occupation of the head of the home, it is found that it was higher in the workers of the finance (3.09%), professional services (3.03 %) and health (2.92%). In contrast, inflation was notoriously lower in workers of the domestic service (1.94%), construction (2.08%) and agriculture (2.19%) ”.

“The main factor behind these differences has to do with the average income of each sector. Finance, professional services and health workers have greater prominence in the highest deciles, product that their family income is considerably higher than average. As a result of this, they allocate most of their expenses to items such as tourism, which was the largest increases in the month. The opposite occurs with the work-ens of domestic service, construction and agriculture, ”explain analysts.