Poverty in the Milei era: After touching a maximum of 53%, it is estimated that 2024 closed below 40%

Among the data that hit the most Javier Milei government During their first year of management, two that are interconnected were highlighted: the poverty index and the purchasing power of workers. Poverty reached a peak of 52.9% In the first semester of 2024 and now, as stated by the President himself, he would be under the 37%. What real possibilities exist that the data reaches that threshold?

“Poverty in the monthly frequency, measured by Martín González Rozada of the Di Tella Universityshows that we lower it from 57% to 36%; that is to say, We go down 21 points Poverty and We get almost 10 million people out of poverty. In that context, where inflation continues to go down, real wages and retirements continue to rise, where people are doing a lot better, we are at levels of records and we have intention of votes of the order between the between the 45% and the 50%“The president said.

The data arises from Nowcast of the Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT)which estimated that the figure of poverty would be 36.8% in the second semester and is based on the projection of the structure of the labor market and of the Total family income (ITF) of the Permanent Household Survey (EPH) of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC).

Poverty and indigence: private estimates for the closing of 2024

After the incipient data of the last Eph, González Rozada estimated that in the third quarter the poverty It was located in the 38.3%while in the semester elapsed between April and September would have reached the 44.6%. The Argentine Catholic University (UCA) coincided with this data and projected that the indigence -With this information- it will be positioned in the 9.2%.

Although, the director of the Argentine Social Debt Observatory of the UCA, Agustín Salviahe raised in dialogue with Scope that the “fine” data will be known next week, when on Thursday 20 INDEC GIVE THE Permanent Household Survey (EPH) Total Urban of the third quarter, which will allow a more accurate poverty estimate.

Extrapolated to the total population, this would imply that there are some some 18.026.907 poorof which 4,330,222 are under the threshold of destitution.

In that sense, from the UCA It stands out that there is a structural poverty floor that is from 33% Since 2018, after the debt crisis of the government of Mauricio Macriand that further shot more with the pandemicreaching levels of 41.7%, at the close of the administration of Fernández.

For Salvia, the closing poverty data of 2024 will be above 37%a figure similar to the one he had provided in the middle of last year to this medium exclusively. At that time, he remarked that to reach these levels, inflation had to yield and wages observe a recovery against Consumer Price Index (CPI)like Social programs.

Nobility obliges, inflation slowed down in the second half of the year and social programs rose in 2024 above inflation: the Universal child allocation (AUH) had an increase in 351% and the Feed card of the 137.5%.

The salary, meanwhile, did not run with the same fate: the registered (private and public) They grew in November, last formal fact of Indec, But they lost 4.9% real. This deterioration is explained in its entirety by state salariessince in this segment the loss with respect to November 2023 is from 14.5%, Although he accumulates five consecutive months without setbacks. On the contrary, In the private sector they already recovered the level prior to the arrival of the libertarians to Casa Rosadaalthough they were just 0.5% above.

Meanwhile, the unemployment touched a level of 7.7% In the first quarter and towards the third it slowed 6.9%, although it is still above the 2023 threshold. In addition, there is a Strong growth of suboccupation (11.4% vs. 10.3%). The countercara of the destruction of formal employment with retirement and greater rights discounts – such as Aguinaldo, Pags and Social Work Vacation – is the growth of the monotax.

“While there is a real improvement with respect to the first quarter of 2024 and slightly better than the fourth quarter of 2023, Statistical poverty levels are similar to the average of 2023 and, on the other hand, They are not measuring the same“Salvia catapulted, who added to his analysis:” The change in relative prices in a context of Low inflation with Rate adjustment and No job creationcauses the family budget to recharge more to pay public services and there is less consumption capacity. And that the poverty thermometer is not measuring it. “

This last phenomenon that Salvia stands out is related to the change in the weights of the inflation index and the basic baskets measured by INDEC and that is still stagnant.