Global gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to slow to 3.1% this year and 3.0% in 2023, according to Credito y Caución, which this Wednesday revised down its estimates by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively.
“While global GDP growth recovered to 5.9% in 2021, we estimate it will ease to 3.1% in 2022 as inflation squeezes consumer spending and chain issues restrict trade. By 2023, we expect growth to slow even further, to 3.0%”, refer to the credit insurer’s findings in a report published this Wednesday.
Crédito y Caución singled out high inflation, supply chain problems stemming from the war in Ukraine, and China’s restrictive COVID-19 policy as the main reasons for this downward revision to global GDP growth.
For developed countries, GDP growth is “expected to slow to 2.7% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023.”
“Consumers are feeling the pressure of high inflation, typically driven by high energy prices in Europe and imbalances between supply and demand in the United States of America,” the report said.
In emerging economies, GDP growth forecast for this year (3.5%) has almost halved (6.9%) compared to 2021.
These economies are “feeling the pressure of supply chain bottlenecks and inflation,” according to Crédito y Caución, but they are also at greater risk of new waves of covid-19 given lower vaccination rates.
However, he also warns that “new economic consequences of the pandemic in the United States of America, the UK, Germany or France, where the number of cases is increasing again,” cannot be ruled out.
The report also predicts that the impact of the war on food prices will gradually dissipate with increased production in countries such as Argentina, Brazil and the United States, with “aid not coming until 2023.”
For Portugal, the insurer has a more optimistic forecast for GDP growth than the Bank of Portugal (BdP) this year, estimating it will grow by 6.9% versus 6.3% calculated by the Portuguese central bank.
Crédito y Caución estimates that Portugal’s GDP will grow by 1.9% in 2023, while inflation in Portugal will be 1.8%.
Author: Lusa
Source: CM Jornal
