Secondly, An analysis of the sector itself is that the producers who had soybeans to sell already did so in September and, if Sergio Massa’s economic team launches a new edition of the soybean dollar, everything will depend on the exchange rate that is established.. The rise of the financiers and the blue bring more distrust among the farmers who still keep oilseed grain in their silos.
According to official statistics, up to the time of the 2021/22 harvest, some 11.5 million tons remain to be marketed and on the other hand there are some 4.3 million tons with a price to be set. Taking current FOB prices into account, that would mean more than US$6 billion stored in silo bags. Those are the dollars the government needs to achieve some calm for the remainder of the year and the beginning of next year.
In general terms, a new soybean dollar could imply the income of between US$3,500 and US$5,000 million and here the Government also plays with a card in favor. The disastrous wheat campaign could accelerate the need for financing for some producers but the truth is that, on the other hand, those who managed to save grain until this time of the year are the ones with the greatest financial support. That is, large agricultural companies and planting groups. So everything remains to be seen.
That is why on the table is what would be the ideal value that the economic team could offer to tempt these large agricultural producers or the fine print of the measure. It still resonates with discontent in the sector of the march and counter march of the BCRA regarding those who could buy financial dollars after having sold soybeans through the dollar.
Despite the fact that the waters calmed down and the BCRA resolution did not reach individuals, distrust in the countryside is commonplace regarding the generosity of the Government and its need to have more foreign currency.
Finally, the last point to take into account is that since government sources themselves stated that the implementation of a new differential exchange rate for soybeans for the 2021/22 campaign has not been ruled out, sales by producers they practically came to a standstill. It is that the speculation now is to wait to get a better value and, if the Executive does not launch the measure, then it should quickly discard it so that the market continues to flow. Definition days are coming and once again soybean dollars are the precious stone of the Argentine economy.
Source: Ambito
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