Such is the case that Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) He decided cut production estimates for the area in a 45% compared to the first forecasts of the campaigna loss equivalent to 9 million tons.
Now the entity expects a harvest of 10.7 million tonswhen three months ago expectations placed the threshing in 19.7 million tons.
“No one can explain how in three months of cultivation this has happened. Although it was known that it would be a very difficult campaign due to the drought, what is seen has overcome the worst nightmares of the producers,” indicated the report prepared by the BCR.
As explained by the stock exchange entity, “this drop is due above all to the sharp drop in potential returns due to the scarce growth shown by cultivation in the core zone”, which went from the expected 40 quintals per hectare (qq/ha) to only 23 qq/ha.
Added to this is “a low in sown area of almost half a million hectares due to the extreme lack of water that prevented compliance with the intentional sowing schemes”, so that the soybean area became 4.7 million hectares.
Of course, it is marked decline in production projections impacted the harvest forecasts at the national level.
That is why the BCR reduced during the week bean production estimate by 25% compared to last month’s forecast until 37 million tons due to droughtwhereby a 13% lower crop is expected to the previous one 2021/22 campaign.
“12 million tons of the oilseed are already considered lost and it is estimated with 37 million that it will be the third worst Argentine harvest of the last 15 years,” said the stock exchange.
The lack of rain was the key factor for the drop in the production estimate for this campaign, which will be located 5.2 million tons below what was obtained last cyclewhen the threshing totaled 42.2 million tons.
Also, the area planted with the cereal will also decrease, since a month ago 17.1 million hectares were expected to be implanted, but only 16 million were implanted.
For her part, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) also made an adjustment 500,000 hectares in soybean planting, so the surface remained at 16.2 million hectares.
“Such surface adjustment, next to the current scenario, where a 56.1% of the implanted area reports a culture condition between fair and poor while more than 6 out of every 10 hectares report a regular/drought water conditionplaces the new production estimate at 41 million tons,” the entity explained, so a production decline of 2.3 million tons is expected compared to the previous campaign.
This situation will be correlated with the economic impact that is expected: according to the entity’s estimates, with this estimated volume of production the Gross Agricultural Product (PBA) of soybeansthat is, its contribution to the economy, would fall 17% compared to that registered during the 2021/22 campaign, which would imply a loss of US$3,948 millionwhile on the side of the exportsthe loss would be 13% and there would be a decrease in income of US$3,248 million.
Source: Ambito
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