The Argentine government met the goals of the last quarter of the year with the IMF, according to estimates by analysts consulted by Télam, thanks to the implementation of the so-called “soybean dollar II”, adjustments in fiscal accounts and the policy of curbing direct financing from the Bank Central to the Treasury.
IsThis will enable the multilateral organization to trigger a new disbursement for Argentina in March for US$5,000 million. The fourth revision of the program that the IMF maintains with Argentina will be developed in February at a technical level, and it is expected that the revision will be approved in March.
The IMF disbursements are matched so that Argentina can meet the expiration dates of the program that this management inherited from the Macri administration, which for the current year total payment commitments for some US$19.85 billion.
According to the payment schedule, With the expiration of Monday, Argentina would have faced a total of US$2.650 million in January.
Based on the goals agreed with the IMF, Argentina had to end 2022 with a net accumulation in reserves of at least US$5 billion, a figure that was finally exceeded and that, based on private estimates, “will not require a waiver” ( sorry) to pass the exam.
The doubts of economists
However, some analysts warn about the existence of some pressure on the monetary base and therefore inflation, as a result of the policies applied to meet the objectives set.
“Taking into account our estimates, the goals of monetary financing to the Treasury, of primary fiscal deficit, of the floating debt stock and of accumulation of international reserves, main within the agreement, would have been met,” said Claudio Caprarulo, director of Analytica.
That is to say, “the first three that refer to the fiscal field channeled their way to be achieved from the adjustment made by the change of management and the greater capacity of rolling the debt in pesos,” said the specialist when reporting the task carried out. by the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, since last August, when he took office.
As for the accumulation of net international reserves, “after adjusting the goal of US$ 500 million that were considered pertinent due to the greater expenditure on energy as a result of the rise in international prices, the goal would have been overachieved by US$ 495 million thanks to a strong brake on imports thanks to non-automatic licences, price incentives for exports through the “soybean dollar” and freely available loans from international organizations,” Caprarulo explained.
For his part, Emiliano Anselmi, chief economist at the consultancy PPI, said that thanks to the soybean dollar, which allowed the BCRA to buy US$ 7,344 million in its two versions, the reserve goal was reached.
“We estimate that net reserves would have closed the year at around US$7.650 million, growing by US$5.320 million compared to the end of 2021. Given the required objective, the goal would have been overachieved by US$1.070 million” , I consider.
Likewise, “the extra collection from withholdings derived from the ‘soybean dollar 2’ would have contributed 0.2% of GDP, and this could contribute to reaching the goal of 2.5% of GDP for 2022 or that the deviation is minimal (0. 2% of GDP),” he added.