In the definition of the entity, this monetary aggregate “includes currency held by the public, settlement checks in pesos, and total deposits in pesos from the non-financial private sector.” Vitelli’s estimate does not include Treasury debt in pesos. If those pesos that the State would have to pay in case no one renewed the debt were added, the value “one by one” would go to sidereal values above $900.
Vitelli’s calculations show that lthe convertibility dollar gap against the official known as “A3500” is 115%. The analyst pointed out to Ámbito that the decision of the Central Bank to slow down the crowing peg during January “was like shooting himself in the foot.”
During that month the controlled devaluation of the BCRA was 5.15%, while in February it was doing so at a rate of 6%. “Slowing down the pace meant that exporters did not liquidate and in turn increased the demand for imports,” he said.
In fact, the exchange gap increased and forced the Government to announce the debt repurchase operation in dollars to try to control the price of the bonds used to carry out Cash with Liquidation (CCL) operations.
Precisely, against the so-called “flight dollar” (the CCL) the gap of the convertibility dollar is 13%. Meanwhile, if it is measured against the Stock Market dollar (known as MEP), the gap is 16%.
Vitelli believes that the government faces a dilemma. “If the Central Bank restricts the supply of dollars to accumulate reserves, it exposes itself to a drop in economic activity,” says the analyst. For this reason, he maintains that “the mother of the problem is the late exchange rate.”
Romano Group Analyst considers that the Government may have to ask the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a waiver in this year’s reserve target. “The distance is about $7.8 billion and it will be about $4.8 billion below,” she explained. “It is a complicated scenario. I think there will be no choice but to ask for a waiver. The problem is that it is too early to ask for it, ”she pointed out. Vitelli who considered that according to market data there would not be a soybean dollar for March, but it is expected for April. That would imply that the resource would not be used to accumulate for the goals of the first quarter.
In fact, the Secretary of Agriculture, Juan José Bahillo, discarded this weekend the “soybean dollar 3” at least in the terms with which the market speculates.
Source: Ambito
