Although the Palacio de Hacienda managed to dominate the onslaught of opposition economists who questioned the financing policy, andhe context of the second call of the month is not the best on the fiscal front.
It was learned that in January, a month in which seasonally there is a fiscal surplus, on the contrary in this year the deficit grew in a way that complicates the goal of the first quarter of the year. It is not a good figure for the market, nor for the team led by Gabriel Rubinstein in Washington that is trying to close the numbers for 2022 with the IMF.
because of whate in January and February inflation revived, Finance will make available to investors As of June 16, they yield inflation in the secondary market plus an effective annual rate of 5.5%. According to high-frequency indicators, inflation in February would be moving at 6% with a core that rises to 7% per month. In the previous call they were in good demand.
On the other hand, they reopened two bills at a discount (Ledes) as of May 31 and June 30which yield in the secondary markets the 118.7% and 115.6% annual cash, in respective way. Some investors assume that these can yield more than the Lecer in an international context that forces us to look at the debt in local currency. The diffusion of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve (FED) sets the pattern that the moment in which the rate of American bonds can begin to fall is moving away and that affected the emerging countries, including Argentina.
On the other hand, only for Mutual Funds, a new Lelite is presented as of March 27 with an effective annual rate of 96.2%.
Meanwhile, due to the fact that in recent weeks the Central Bank accelerated the crawling peg pace, the Treasury goes on the market to offer linked dollar bonds as of July 31, which marks a moving average rate of 75% in February, against 60% in January.
One of the possible explanations for the increase in the deficit in January is that the government has been canceling the floating debt of 2022 in January. That is, These are payments that should have been made last year but are being made now, according to Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI).
This is a new challenge for the Ministry of Economy, which was able to efficiently overcome the first call. The Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, is in India at the G20 meeting while the vice president, Gabriel Rubinstein, heads the team that analyzes the closing of the 2022 program with the IMF so that a disbursement of US$5 is triggered. 400 million. In other words, it is a time of high international exposure for Massa, which has to show signs of effectiveness and control of economic variables.