On the other hand, the investigation states that, in the first month of 2023, “the cash-based fiscal deficit of the National Public Sector showed a result above expectations and was ARS 204 billion (according to the IMF methodology)”.
“This is explained by a significant reaction in spending, which broke a trend of a consecutive semester falling in real terms, and a continuation of the meager real performance of income,” details the study.
According to the data, “expenditure totaled ARS 1.9 trillion (+111%), which is equivalent to a real increase of 6.2%, while income reached ARS 1.7 trillion (92.4%), falling in real terms 3.2%”.
In this regard, CEPA explained that “the dynamics of income and expenses became more complex in January given that practically half of the fiscal margin of the quarterly goal was used in January.”
And he expanded: “This is even more complex to manage if the seasonality of the deficit within the quarter is considered, given that January is -precisely- the month where the best fiscal result is usually achieved.”
The impact of agriculture
Meanwhile, the text comments that two factors explain the dynamics of Export Rights: the drought and the “soybean dollar.”
The drought because “it strongly affected wheat exports (which are relevant in this period) and caused soybeans to be planted late (that is, these exports will not arrive so early in the year).”
Besides, the “soybean dollar” of December 2022 generated an advance of exports that should be liquidating in these months, so the current availability is very low.
Lastly, it highlights that, in order to meet the IMF goal, it is estimated that the government will have to reduce the base scenario deficit by ARS 360 billion between February and March, which could be achieved by returning to the floating debt limit allowed by the IMF (about ARS 390 billion).