The objective was to shield the “staff-level agreement” in all areas, the basic document that is then submitted to the board of directors for a vote. In this sense, Georgieva confirmed that she “is making good progress in the fourth review of the program.” This will make it possible to unlock a disbursement of US$5.4 billion that will later be used to repay the installments of the Stand By agreement signed by Mauricio Macri.
At the same time, There was significant progress in modifying the goals set for this year in terms of the accumulation of reserves. In net terms, some US$5.8 billion should be added this year, an objective that with the current situation seemed difficult to achieve. At press time details were still being worked out between the government team and that of the multilateral organization. However, an official familiar with the talks confirmed to Ámbito that the formalization of the consensus reached will be officially announced no later than this Tuesday.
The easing of this point of the program implies that Argentina will be spared in an election year the political and exchange tensions that the constant requests for “waivers” imply. It will also have a greater margin to release payments for key imports to sustain the level of activity, a request that industrialists have been making to the Government to access productive inputs. According to what this medium was able to find out, fiscal and monetary targets will remain unchanged. “They are an anchor of the program that also gives greater credibility to the economic plan,” they explained in the Ministry of Economy.
The arguments: war and drought
Massa arrived in India with a report prepared by his technical team that quantified the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the Central Bank’s reserves. Due to the rise in fuel and freight prices, a net loss of US$4.940 million was estimated compared to previous projections. The calculation also takes into account the higher performance of the agro-industrial complex, which last year was US$617 million above forecast.
Although in the current period the panorama appears much more complex for the sector that contributes the most currencies on the commercial front. Once again due to unforeseen factors, a drought that for analysts will bring losses of up to US$10 billion, Argentina will have greater difficulties in the exchange field. That was the other argument that was part of the conversation with the Fund.
In February of last year, prior to the signing of the extended facilities agreement (EFF for its acronym in English), Ámbito revealed that a “war clause” would be included due to the prevailing uncertainty prior to the war escalation in Europe. This element was intended to recalculate targets in the event of a sudden change in global and local economic conditions.