The initiative is ambitious. As this newspaper told weeks ago, the idea from the beginning was reschedule maturities to 2024 and 2025, that is, to jump the electoral barrier that marked the tenders of the last months. Recently, as Ámbito learned, progress was made on the idea of stagger new maturities in different months. Different sources specified that the holders that enter into the exchange will receive inflation-adjusted securities (CER) or dual (which provide double coverage: they pay the most convenient between the rise in prices and the official dollar), which would be the key to extend the payment terms further.
Specifically, 80% of the new instruments will be tied to inflation and the remaining 20% will be made up of dual bonds. This indexation is the cost that the Treasury will pay to go through the most critical months, a strategy that it has already used in the last swaps. In addition, the Central Bank would offer a put option (known as “put”)which will function as a kind of liquidity insurance for those who enter the exchange and whose details are negotiated in parallel.
An important official source told this medium that, in principle, the menu of titles eligible for conversion will include those that expire in March, April, May and June. According to calculations by the consultant 1816, in that period $7.7 billion expire. Of this total, 1816 estimated that 37% is in the hands of the BCRA, the Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS) of the Anses and state banks, whose renewal is not at risk. 44% are held by private banks, FCI, insurers and foreign funds; This is the key segment that Economy seeks to add to the swap. The remaining 19% would be held by companies, individuals and other public entities.
With the intention of closing the last details of the operation, this Monday at noon the Secretary of Finance, Eduardo Setti, will meet with the directors of the main institutional investors, confirmed official sources. In principle, Massa would also participate in the meeting. “We are going to start talking with the FCIs and insurers, and with the banks the talk has been taking a little longer,” a senior official told Ámbito. With everything, in the Palacio de Hacienda they assure that they are close to sealing the agreement to launch the announcement.
Institutional investor sources consulted by this newspaper agree that there was progress in the negotiation. And several analysts agree that the regulatory restrictions that these agents have to dollarize will make many people lean towards participating in the conversion when faced with a good offer.
Another point highlighted by the consultant 1816 is that in the last two weeks the market began to demand bonds to 2024, which compressed yields to 9% plus CER and 4% above the variation in the official exchange rate. “If this incipient demand for 2024 papers continues, there will be a significant ‘window of opportunity’ for an exchange,” he said in a report.
How is this demand explained? “Perhaps because of JxC, which went from publishing statements about the ‘bomb in pesos’ to implying that it has a willingness to pay,” 1816 suggested. “plan chaos” in the quotes), Patricia Bullrich received a slap on the wrist from the banks located in Adeba, the economists of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta slipped a gradual exit from the stocks and Martín Tetaz said on FM Milenium that he supports “the exchange of the debt in pesos because it is convenient for nobody that it explodes”.
For now, the Government will seek to give a strong signal with the launch of the exchange to appease the exchange rate outlook for the coming months at a time when the shortage of foreign currency due to the drought becomes a major determining factor for the economic dynamics of 2023 Precisely within this framework, Economy expects for this week the announcement by the IMF of easing of one booking goal that it became unattainable. In this case, the intention is to show the agency’s willingness to maintain a program that the economic team sees as the main anchor for inflation that continues without respite.