On the other hand, banking sources speculate with a new bond exchange to reschedule maturities and clear up doubts about a possible default in an electoral year, after the implementation of a special exchange rate was announced to encourage exports from regional economies.
The Government has already carried out two exchanges since Sergio Massa took over the Economy portfolio, last August.
“The drought, a failed buyback program, the effects on the soybean dollar market and the impossibility of reaching an agreement on the REPO make it difficult to reach the international reserves goal for next March (and for the year?), which would be promoting a renegotiation of the agreement between the Government and the IMF,” said the consultancy EcoGo.
“The key point would be when and how much net international reserves must be accumulated (and not payments to the agency),” he estimated.
“The new ‘Malbec dollar’ announced adds another distortion to the already salad of exchange rates”, said Roberto Geretto of Fundcorp.
“These new starter exchange rates promise to be less successful than the ‘soybean dollar’ because the amounts involved are lower in terms of exports, and also because improving prices can start to have an impact on CPI (inflation), unlike of soybeans, which has practically zero domestic consumption,” added
“Even though Argentina does not have to comply to the letter of what was initially committed in terms of accumulation of reservesthe expectations of economic agents will continue to be affected by the fragility of the Central Bank’s balance sheetwith external assets that are contracting and liabilities in local currency that are expanding at full speed,” said Fundación Mediterránea.
“The latest projections of the harvest and its impact on Argentine exports force us to recalculate the flow of foreign currency and growth for 2023. The direct and indirect impact of the drought on production would produce a drop in GDP of around 1.5% this year, with the risk of increasing if the lack of rain continues,” estimated Delphos Investment.
“Gross reserves (of the BCRA) would fall by around 10,000 million dollars, as a result of the consequent adjustment of imports in an environment of less internal activity“, he pointed.
“Those (producers) who can harvest will have to wait until April for the commercial flow to begin. This has to do with some speculation that the producer was withholding. He is not withholding, he has nothing to sell and that is the reality “, José Martins, president of the Grain Exchange of Buenos Aires, said in radio statements.
“In general, the commercialization of grains is always done in advance to ensure logistics and a commercial flow. Today there is panic because the producer does not know what harvest he is going to have and that way he is not selling anything,” he added.
“Argentina has many opportunities ahead, that create jobs and allow us to grow. But we have to change, laws, regulations and the way the economy works, completely. Because this is a stagnant economy,” said economist Fausto Spotorno.
“Any IMF wake-up calls for financial dollar intervention and early pre-election portfolio rotations could snap the (currency) gap out of its slumber and quickly wipe out any carry trade gains,” GMA Capital Research said.
“From 2003 to date, the expanded monetary base (including remunerated liabilities) has increased 12,549% while prices have increased 12,157%”revealed analyst Salvador Vitelli.
“A zone of uncertainty such as the one that the market (Argentine stock market) is currently going through is usually defined in a maximum of three months. In general terms, this type of situation is resolved with a continuity in the trend that the index has been dragging. But neither is it rules out a break in key price levels and, therefore, a return to the main trend,” estimated Mauro Natalucci, from Rava Bursátil.
Source: Ambito
