The position of the team of economists from Together for Change (JxC) of not giving certainty about the future of the debt in pesos, with the history of reprofiling that the former Minister of Economy has Hernan Lacunza, generates a strong tension between JxC and the economic establishment. This Monday, the market reacted positively to the announcement of the debt swap made by the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massafor debt maturities in pesos between March and June of this year.
“We are fighting with the entire establishment over this issue, but if we do nothing, Massa papers the country and is president,” one of the main economists of the PRO presidential candidates assured Ámbito.
Debt in pesos: tension between JxC and the establishment
In fact, Javier Bolzico, president of the Association of Argentine Banks (Adeba), came out publicly to cross Lacunza on Twitter. On Sunday afternoon, JxC agreed to come out at the same time with criticism of the debt swap.
Although there were several JxC economists who came out with criticism, Bolzico did not answer Luciano Laspina, Patricia Bullrich’s economic reference. They are friends and even share offices in the same building. The banker He left at the intersection of LacunzaGiven that according to market sources they do not “forget” the default of the debt in pesos in August 2019, after Cambiemos lost the primary elections.
The criticism made by the financial sector is that the official explanation at that time is that the reprofiling was to avoid reintroducing the exchange rate stocks, a measure that was ended up being taken weeks later. In addition, they remember that the decision broke the contracts of mutual funds, bonds and bills, and damaged many companies that had funds there for working capital.
The establishment’s position is on the one hand against “breaking contracts” and that the State “honor its commitments”, but also in favor of “preserving public credit as a State policy”. From JxC they believe that the banks with the exchange agree to “tremendous conditions”, and as long as the restrictions on the exchange market are maintained, “they charge the interest of the debt covered without problems”.
As this newspaper was able to learn, there were three causes that led JxC to speak of the “weight bomb”. On the one hand, the bad fiscal deficit data for January. Since he took office last August, Massa carried out a real reduction in public spending, a correction that led to an implicit agreement with JxC: the approval in “record time” of the 2023 budget in Congress and the expectation in the opposition that I was going to make the tax corrections. At that time, in addition, Massa denied that he was going to be a candidate for president.
However, they assure that this decrease in spending is given for “bad reasons”, such as “liquefying it due to inflation” or “stepping on the box”, in reference to the fact that part of the bad data on the fiscal deficit in January was due to the payment of the debt floating. The opposition projects that the fiscal deficit will end in 2023 at 3 points of GDP, and not 1.9% as signed with the IMF, due to electoral spending and the impact of the severe drought.
There was another reason that dynamited a cooperation scenario: “The pension moratorium overflowed the camel’s back. We look bad with 800,000 retirees who had the PUAM and this will cost 0.4% of GDP, for half of such an expense the agreement with the IMF should fall, “said an important economist from the JxC team.
Opposition sources assured that they do not see a political agreement at least until after the primary elections. They assure that if there were a possible scenario of a call from the Ministry of Economy, the requests they would take is that fiscal consolidation be accelerated, through the rate adjustment and the reduction of social plans. “We do not ask that they return to what Cristina Kirchner left in 2015 with 250,000 plans, but at least to 2019, with 500,000,” they stated from JxC. Currently there are 1.3 million Potenciar Trabajo. “If they don’t want to adjust the dollar, which is behind schedule, at least they make the fiscal adjustment,” they added.
A third reason for the “hawking” of JxC in terms of debt in pesos has to do with the electoral campaign. Close to Mauricio Macri, they believe that showing “prudence” has a negative impact on a part of the electorate that considers them “Tibiemos” (instead of Cambiemos)., and that he can escape to Javier Milei. Of the 41% of the 2019 votes, they consider that at least 30% “run them to the right.”
Source: Ambito
