As Cross-Carrier Scope was able to find out, the new exchange is expected to have an adhesion of between 60% and 65%. 50% will be from the intra-public sector debt, so the rest will come from the private sector. If it exceeds that percentage, it could be considered a great success for the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa.
Among the officials of the Palacio de Hacienda, it is anticipated that the degree of adherence will be more “moderate” than in previous calls, among other issues, because on this occasion the assembly arouses more interest among financial institutions that they were negotiating with the government for two months.
The other important players in the market, Common Investment Funds (FCI), especially the “money market”, will enter in a limited way, if at all. A t +1 fund operator told him: “We are not going to enter because we are operating in very short terms.” For the FCIs, which receive money from their clients for periods that do not exceed a month, it does not make sense to go from short letters to papers that expire in two years. “We are going to continue operating with what has not entered into the exchange,” he explained.
Javier Bolzico, president of the Association of Argentine Banks (Adeba) He said, meanwhile, that “If this swap is successful, as it seems to be, it clears up uncertainty, stretches the horizon and gives peace of mind that the debt will be paid”. “No one wants the Sword of Damocles to see whether or not every few months the government will be able to refinance its debts,” he said.
Government will seek to exchange 10 titles that expire between March and June. There are 4 LEDs, 3 Lecer, 1 Boncer, 1 linked dollar and 1 dual bonus. In exchange, he puts two baskets on the table: one made up of three new Boncers that expire in April and October 2024, and February 2025; and another one the same, but that replaces the shorter Boncer with a dual bonus. The bidding is defined by price, so it is not possible to determine an interest rate in advance.
As estimated by the cConsultant 1816, 49% of the holdings of the 10 bonds would be in the hands of the state itself, 21% among the banks, 11% in the hands of the FCI and 5% among the insurance companies. He estimates that if the financial institutions exchange half of what they have, the insurers 35%, the Funds 25% and the rest of the investors 15%, a total of 66% would be reached. “If that was the case, the stock of titles included in the operation would drop from $7.5 trillion to $2.6 trillion”, says 1816.
The consultant indicates that given the characteristics of the operation, it is possible that there will be up to 20 cut-off prices, but states that, if they are taken as a reference With the current price of the 2024 Boncers in the secondary market, which oscillates between 9% and 9.5% plus inflation, the new ones would be coming out with a double-digit rate.
On the other hand, the report warns that even in the hypothesis of 100% adherence to the swap, uncertainty about the debt in pesos would not disappear, when recalling that the crisis of June last year that determined the departure of Martín Guzmán from the Ministry of Economy was not triggered by the maturities themselves, but because the holders of letters decided to sell them in the secondary market. That possibility would continue to exist even with a new maturity progression that is better than the current one.
Source: Ambito
