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Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Economy analyzes the impact of the SVB crisis

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When asked by this newspaper about whether the projections of reaching u$s 9,000 million of exportssources from the Knowledge Economy Secretariat replied: “They are maintained because up to now no direct consequences have been recorded, but we are carefully watching the evolution of the crisis.”

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In dialogue with Ámbito, Gustavo Guaragnamember of the board of directors of the Argentine Chamber of Software (Cessi) analyzed the impact of the bankruptcy of the US SVB on the Argentine technology sector: “Here there are a lot of large companies, SMEs and even independent workers who have Silicon Valley startups as an export destination, then the impact will depend on what happens to this ecosystem, at least there could be a rearrangement in the payment chain”.

Although the technology sector began with alarm signals in the middle of last year, with the sudden rise in interest rates in the US and its impact on Argentine startups after years of cheap credit, Guaragna is looking more closely at this crisis. financial crisis, although basically the causes are the same, which is the Fed’s policy to try to lower inflation.

“Although there were Argentine companies with layoffs, especially in startups, it did not hit as much as in other countries, There were even companies that took it as an opportunity, because in the United States they sought to optimize costs and looked more at Latin AmericaGuaragna explained. In fact, in 2022 Knowledge economy exports grew and reached their all-time high, and the same has been happening with employment. The latest data, from November 2022, showed that employment in the sector was 303,335, an increase of 18.2% compared to the pre-pandemic (2019), accumulating 30 consecutive months of month-on-month expansion, according to the CEP XXI.

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For 2023 exports, Guaragna estimated: “It may be that they have to be adjusted, because the US is a great destination, it will depend on the health of the banking ecosystem and the impact on the volume of operations of startups.”

For his part, Pablo Neiraan economist at Misión Productiva, analyzed that “They won’t affect each other too much” exports in Knowledge-Based Services (KBS), but he considered that the general evolution of the US economy must be closely monitored. “The demand for KBS comes from many sectors, not only from startups, so Unless there is a major recession in the country, then it can become a problem. US companies are our main applicants, with a great strength that is the time zone”.

In addition, Neira anticipated a medium term effect: “The biggest consequence is in startups, included in the knowledge economy, which need high-risk capital funding, so there could be less emergence of potential new companies that could eventually export. Those that are already large exporters are not going to have that problem in financing”.

Sources of Endeavor reported that there was 12 entrepreneurs affected due to the bankruptcy of the SVB, but that everyone was able to recover the money and be “safe”, with the strategy of not leaving more than US$250,000, which is what the insurance covers, because the FED guaranteed the funds. Endeavor made themselves available to the network of local entrepreneurs reached to open accounts in other US banks.

Boost to the sector

This Friday will be held in La Rural “EconAr”, the first knowledge economy fair, organized by the Knowledge Economy Secretariat and the leading IT companies, which will be present with stands and workshops, with a focus on technological innovation, jobs of the future, the educational offer and skills of e-sports. Entrance is free and open.

However, Sujarchuk’s portfolio, has little expectations that one of the big projects they wanted for this year will come out: the tech monotribute law, which is in Congress, and if approved, it will allow professionals to invoice up to US$30,000 per year without paying the official dollar. “It seeks to recognize the reality of people who work abroad and give them a legal and concrete instrument,” said Sujarchuk.

From Argencom, which is the chamber that brings together large companies such as Mercado Libre and Globant, the “blue exports” that enter through the informal market are estimated to be over US$2 billion annually. In any case, Sujarchuk opined: “It will not have much impact on the inflow of foreign currency, because between the election year, the operation of Congress, which is enacted and regulated, would come into effect next year.”

Source: Ambito

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