He Central Bank (BCRA) the rate of the traditional fixed term and that of the Leliq rose by 1,000 basis points last Thursday, and took them at 91% (the nominal annual rate, TNA), with a yield monthly (TEM) around 7.5% and an annual effective interest (TEA) of 140.5%. Faced with these changes, the big question for savers returns: should I renew or go for a fixed term UVA?
Until the day before the last rate hike, given the acceleration of inflation and its prospects for the coming months, it was undoubtedly convenient the UVA, which pays 1% above the price evolution index of the economy. But, taking into account the strong adjustment made by the BCRA in the yields of the instruments in pesos, the answer to this dichotomy is no longer so resounding.
This is how he explains it to Ambit Christian Buteler, economist expert in capital markets, when he points out that “there was a sharp rise in the rate by the Government and that evened out the fight a bit”. He recommends that, if the saver thinks that the evolution of prices is going to be higher than the rate of the fixed term, it would be convenient for him to maintain the fixed term UVA, while, if he considers that it will be a little below that yield, the term would be convenient. traditional fixed.
Fixed term: this rate is the one that is applied
Regarding those variables that he points out that must be observed, that, for the moment, the UVA fixed term continues to be more convenient because The inflation rate of last month is still running and the one for April is going to impact, recently, from May 15 and until June 15.
Jorge Neyro, chief economist at Delphos Investment, also believes that, “given the inflation estimates for April, today there is a kind of ‘technical tie’ between the April fixed terms and perceived inflation.” But, he points out that, when in doubt about the inflationary dynamics, the UVA fixed term always beats that variable.
Meanwhile, Claudio Caprarulo, director of Analytica, details that, if a capital of $100,000 is placed in a fixed term UVA + 1% at 90 days, a profit of 25,534 pesos is projected. While, if a traditional fixed term is chosen, the return obtained at a constant rate is $24,519.
Consequently, according to his calculations, “if the fixed term UVA for another 90 days, with projected inflation, a yield of 54,090 pesoswhile, in the case of traditional fixed termthe yield would be 55,049 pesos”.
Uncertainty, a key element
Alejandro Giacoia, economist at Econviews, points out that this rate hike once again made the traditional fixed term more convenient, especially considering that “the indexed option (the UVA) is for 90 days, while the traditional ones can be at 30”. And he assures that “this is not minor in a context where there can be many ups and downs.”
Thus, taking into account that, as Caprarulo clarifies, the difference in terms of earnings between the two is low, everything indicates that, “in a scenario with so much uncertainty, at this time, a traditional fixed term is betterwhich allows for more liquidity”, since the minimum term of the UVA is three times that established for the 30-day term.
However, it is clear that current and projected inflation These are the key variables that savers must take into account when deciding which of the two instruments to put their money into. That, added to the rate, the evolution of the parallel dollars and the electoral context are the central elements in the dynamics of this year.