This year he already asked the monetary authority for $230,000 million. In April he would not have improved the fiscal situation, but he managed to roll up the maturities in pesos.
Gone is the time when the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massaannounced that he was not going to make any more use of the monetary assistance from the Central Bank. In 2022, since he took office, he canceled all the temporary advances that the body chaired by Miguel Pesce had provided him, to keep his word and give signs that he was seeking fiscal order. But in 2023 the drought played a trick and the head of the Palacio de Hacienda had to use it again already twice of the loans. It has taken $230,000 million and it has a margin of just over $140,000 million left until Juneas highlighted in a report by the consultancy Ecolatina.
“It is worth reviewing that for 2023 the goal of direct monetary assistance agreed with the IMF is equivalent to 0.6% of GDP, feasible to modify from the ongoing negotiations”, says Ecolatina.
The calculation of the assistance to cover the Treasury deficit established by the agreement with the IMF is quite lax, since The issuances that the BCRA has been making to buy bonds in pesos are not included. in secondary markets and prevent prices from collapsing.
Beyond the question related to the fulfillment of the goals of the agreement with the IMF that the government seeks to renegotiate to keep the economic situation calm, The fact that the Ministry of Economy has resorted to aid anticipates that in April the fiscal situation would not have improved.
In the first quarter, the government registered a primary deficit of $689,927.8 million, which represents 0.42% of GDP. He had promised Kristalina Georgieva that it would not exceed 0.3% of GDP in that period, which marked a clear breach by Buenos Aires. In nominal terms, the excess was $258,000 million. All motivated by the fall in the collection of taxes linked to foreign trade. The sales of cereal companies fell by half in April despite the incentive of the soybean dollar. The margin to continue using BCRA assistance is also reduced to Massa, who will surely also try to review this aspect of the agreement in the face of the increasingly demanding leadership of the IMF.
“Direct monetary assistance accumulates $230,000 million in the year (26% of what was agreed with the IMF for the entire year), thus leaving a margin slightly above $140,000 million until June, inclusive,” the report states.
Now the Ministry of Economy You should try to get the necessary pesos from the only source available to you: the domestic market. There, in the last debt tender, he had relief since he managed to roll up the debt that was due in April with apparent solvency.
Ecolatina points out in this regard that “despite the worrying exchange rate tension, the authorities reached a rollover rate of 124% in Aprilobtaining net financing of more than $270,000 million in one month”.