One of the most common comparisons that investors and savers consider when deciding what to do with their money is the choice between dollar and fixed term. In that sense, in April, the clear winner was the US currency. “Measured end to end, the CCL had a monthly rise of 13% and the Blue, of 19%, while the fixed term yielded a little more than 6% and was very relegated”, describes, in this sense, a Ambit the economist from Econviews, Alejandro Giacoia.
However, it indicates that, looking ahead, after the last 1,000 basis point rate hike, the Fixed deadlines now have better performance, since the monthly profit reaches almost 7.6% per monthwhile the parallel exchange rates (both the blue, the CCL and the MEP) are stabilized for the moment.
Thus, although he acknowledges that this is not a guarantee of anything in this context so volatilethe truth is that it seems like a good time to buy dollarsbut depending on when the saver needs to have that money, perhaps a fixed term be the safest option to guarantee profits.
Dollarize without buying dollars
For her part, Elena Alonso, economist at Grupo Broda, assures that, taking into account that the official dollar appreciated above inflation and the interest rate fixed term last month, the best thing to do right now is to be dollarized. “But I am not referring to buying dollars and keeping them. That is not the best, the most convenient is dollarize through assets. For example, buying a negotiable obligation in dollarswhich allows for dollarization and earning interest, in addition, ”says Alonso.
However, for those who still choose a fixed termthe investment specialist recommends split maturities. That is, do them at different times of the month and not all at the same time. This allows savers to take rate increases when they occur and “have liquidity every week to be able to buy dollars, in case there is an opportunity, instead of waiting a month to have the money.”
Ignacio Zorzoli, Finance Director of the Center for Economic Studies Argentina XXI (CEEAXXI), points out, for his part, that “in the current macroeconomic instability and given the proximity of the open and mandatory primary elections, the possibility of making a profit with the carry trade in pesos decreases considerably”.
fixed term vs. exchange rate jump
And it is that, given the jump in the exchange rate that has been seen in recent weeks, he considers that the fixed term rate It should be well above current levels to be able to offset that scenario. And this becomes clearer taking into account the level of liquid reserves that the Central Bank (BCRA), the drop in exportable stocks in the countryside as a result of the strong drought last year and bank deposit withdrawals.
“It would be strange to think that the price of the currency tends to fall in the short term and even more improbable is that it will do so in the medium term at an inflation rate of more than 100% per year”, anticipates Zorzoli. And that is why he maintains that, even taking into account the sharp rise in interest rates that the BCRA last week, which brought the yield of the traditional fixed term to 91% annual nominal, “it does not seem attractive for investors to put the money to 30 days in those instruments and immobilize the balance.”
Other instruments to take advantage of rates
For him, a better option is to take advantage of the high rates in pesos with options such as stock market guarantees or subscription to common investment funds (FCI), where time horizons are shorter.
Nevertheless, the economist Christian Buteler believes that, “in April, the dollar it was much more profitable than the fixed term, but it is to be expected that, in May, if they manage to continue controlling the exchange rate and taking into account the strong increase in rates by the BCRA, the fixed term will surely be better”.
However, other analysts see more dollar opportunities. The truth is that we are in a context of high instability and, for Buteler, “in these scenarios, the best thing to do is to diversify investments to ensure that, although you will not obtain the best performance, you will not have the worst either.”
Of course, in this diversification you can decide in which instrument to leave more money, depending on what the investor decides based on how long you can wait to use your capital, the evolution of the different exchange rates, inflation and the policy of BCRA rates.
Source: Ambito
