The Survey of Market Expectations (REM) for April will be announced this Friday. The March data fell short of those later published by the Government. What will they say this time?
This Friday, the Central Bank (BCRA) will publish the Market Expectations Survey (REM) for March. This is a survey of the expectations of just over 40 opinions from local banks, consultancies, foundations, investment banks and international analysts that is published monthly. There were doubts about the publication of this edition because the modality of carrying it out is under observation by the Legal area of the financial regulator, but, for the moment there would be no changes and it would come out as it usually does.
The observation responds to a claim from the Professional Council of Economic Sciences (CPCE) of the City of Buenos Aires presented in mid-April that questions the modality under which the REM is carried out. “The letter is a shot at the waterline of the REM. If Legal determines that the position is correct, they will have to request that the forecasts are signed by registered students,” a market source warned Ámbito at the time.
That would require a process of suspension of the monthly publication carried out by the BCRA to adapt the parameters that govern its operation and to be able to start it up again under these new requirements, so that its next edition could not come out if the adaptation times are not met.
For the moment, there will be no changes, and the BCRA publication calendar foresees the publication for today, May 5, of the April edition of the survey is carried out the last 3 business days of each month, on the expectations of retail prices, the interest rate, the nominal exchange rate, the level of economic activity, the primary result of the national public sector non-financial, the open unemployment rate, exports of goods (FOB) and imports of goods (CIF).
Its about fourth survey of this year. The third was published last month and analysts estimated monthly inflation of 7% for March 2023, below the 7.7% finally released by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) and an interannual rate of 110%. (10.2 pp above the forecast of the previous survey).
For February 2023, the median of the estimates of those who participated in the previous REM survey suggested inflation of 6.1% per month, while the data observed in that month turned out to be 6.6% (0.5 points percentages —pp— higher than predicted).
This month, as in most previous editions, analysts’ expectations are expected to be adjusted upwards. Above all, taking into account that, within the framework of the volatility in the alternative dollars that occurred in the second half of April, different private consultancies they estimate a floor of 7%although some surveys place it at levels close to those of March (7.7%) and even close to 8%.
For the dollar, meanwhile, the volatility registered will surely be reflected in stronger adjustments in the analysts’ outlook for April.
Source: Ambito
