The first sentence was delivered during the opening by Facundo Gómez Minujín, president of AmCham. The second was said by Marc Stanley, US ambassador to Argentina. Although contradictory, both reflect the spirit of business in the face of an election year, which they anticipate will be recessive and one of “extreme uncertainty.” Yes ok there is optimism that the United States will materialize the “bridge” promised by President Joe Bidenconsider that structural reforms, regulatory frameworks and geopolitical alignment must be carried out for them to take place. million-dollar investments, especially in two sectors: mining and energy.
in dialogue with AmbitAlejandro Díaz, CEO of AmCham, the United States chamber of commerce in Argentina, anticipated that he hopes that country will support Argentina to carry out a “bridge” in an election year, aggravated by the historic drought. “There is a political decision by the American government to collaborate in the transitionfrom a soft landing”, affirmed Díaz.
When asked if this can be translated into the advancement of disbursements of US$10,000 million from the IMF for June, he assured that he does not have the information that it will happen. “What we know, because we traveled to the United States in the week of the bilateral meeting between Alberto Fernández and Joe Biden, and we followed the process, is that the American government wants to give concrete support to Argentina,” he explained.
“It is not common for a bilateral meeting to be offered from the United States to a government in an election year, it is a diplomatic exception that I have not seen in 20 years, and it surprised me,” Díaz said. Why did he do it? “Because Biden wanted to give concrete support before the relevant officials of his administration so that there is a possible support, which they called a bridge”, added the CEO of AmCham.
Díaz explained that what the United States seeks is to support the electoral transition, “regardless” of who takes office on December 10. It is that the countries that could have a role were Brazil, Argentina or Colombia. And before the geopolitics defined by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Gustavo Petro, Argentina came to have a “determinant strategic role.”
Outside of the geopolitics of the countries of the region, not aligned with the United States, in AmCham they also add Role of the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa. “Since his multiple roles in politics he was in contact, there are not so many politicians who have triggered that fluidity in the relationship, with such rigor and discipline,” Díaz said.
In fact, minutes before the presentation on stage, as part of the closing of the meeting, Massa spoke with some businessmen in a “reserved room” of the hotel. He told them that she has “expectation” that the negotiation will close in the coming weeks.
millionaire investments
Even despite the extreme political and economic uncertainty, there are two sectors that showed interest in making million-dollar investments. However, in exchange the businessmen demanded conditions.
In a panel on the electric sectorMartín Genesio, CEO of the multinational AES, affirmed that at this moment he would not make a strong investment: “It is difficult for me to think of a country that has the energy potential of Argentina, but to develop it we need a stable regulatory framework”. In fact, Bernardo Andrews, CEO of Genneia, assured that, if a negotiation they are carrying out with the Ministry of Energy is unleashed so that private companies can invest in infrastructure, investments could be made for at least US$2,000 million.
A similar situation exists in the mining sector. Although there was no specific panel, businessmen were present at the event. In dialogue with Ámbito, Franco Mignacco, president of the Chamber of Mining Entrepreneurs (CAEM) assured that there is a package of Investments planned only for lithium of US$5,000 million. When asked what could hinder investments, the answer was also about the legal framework. Ignacio Celorrio, president of Lithium Americas, replied: “At headquarters there is more concern about the fear of changing the rules of the game than about the economic or electoral situation.”
Wait and see mode
The business climate that described the atmosphere of the AmCham Summit, which brought together Massa, Daniel Scioli, Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta on the same day, is one of “extreme uncertainty” for three reasons. On the one hand, for the election year. When asked if they foresee a turbulent year financially, the businessman Martín Cabrales, in dialogue with Ámbito, opined: “As every electoral year it is going to be moved, but I am not scared, I am attentive.” In fact, A senior source in the financial system stated: “The turbulence is due to the election year, but the system is solid, we don’t have liquidity problems.”
The second reason for uncertainty is political. “In 2015 there were two moderate candidates, there was not so much uncertainty. Now the candidates are not clear, nor is it who could win, there are perfectly four open scenarios”, defined Díaz from AmCham. Various businessmen consulted by this newspaper added that the “miley factor”due to the growth of Javier Milei in the polls, generates “fear”.
And thirdly for the macroeconomic conditions which all the executives complain about, and which Gómez Minujín, from AmCham, summed up in his opening speech: “Argentina began to feel the slowdown. Added to an unprecedented drought, the lack of foreign currency for imports, a fully regulated exchange market and the stocks bring the country to the brink of a new crisis.
Despite the pessimism for the economy in 2023, and also in 2024 due to the expected effects of a stabilization plan, Díaz described the business climate as “wait and see”. And he rejected the idea of the exodus of companies. “The departure of companies was punctual, at AmCham we have grown in membership in the last three years,” he described.
Source: Ambito
