Inflation accelerated in April and marked a high 8.4%, the highest monthly level since 2002 (when it climbed to 10.4% in April of that year, after the end of Convertibility). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) thus accumulated the first quarter of the year an increase of 32%, while in the last 12 months, reached 108.8%.
It should be noted that the CPI for March had registered a monthly increase of 7.7%, which implies a rise of 0.7 percentage points for April.
Claudio Caprarulo, director of Analytica, in dialogue with Ámbitoexplained the reasons behind the inflationary escalation: “Pushed by the inertia left by March and the uncertainty that the exchange rate gap once again generated, reaching 100%the inflation rate accelerated in a month where it should have had the opposite behavior. The situation is very difficult, especially since food prices exceeded 10%, hitting the most vulnerable sectors very hard.“.
To its turn, Rocio Bisang, Eco Go economistalso in dialogue with this medium, maintained that “The inflation data surprised everyone this month for bad. April is a month that due to its own seasonal dynamics is usually low and having a record above March and of this magnitude without a particular trigger is very worrying“.
On the causes, Bisang expanded: “The game of holding This macroeconomic scheme that, without reservations, applies a patch on a patch seeking to avoid devaluation before the elections is getting more and more expensive for us and the chances of sustaining it without a violent break become considerably less in the face of these inflationary dynamics.”
During April, four divisions were above the general measurement and two exceeded 10%. In this way, what rose the most in the month was: Clothing and Footwear (+10.8%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (10.1%), Restaurants and hotels (+9.9%); and Home equipment and maintenance (+8.6%).
“Although the increases were widespread, dairy products, sugar, clothing, electricity stand out, all above 10%, while meat, baked goods, medicines, all in order of 9%. Is highly concerning given that all the products and services mentioned are part of the basic consumption of families, minimizing the possibilities of substitution”, he commented to Ámbito, Gonzalo Semilla economy Head of CREEBBA.
Seed also said that “the rise in the price of blue last month (+20%) had an impact on pricesBesides of tense economic, political (government and opposition) and social climate that the nation has had for a long time“.
If the regions of the country are taken into accountGreater Buenos Aires was the area that had the highest monthly increase (+8.6%), closely followed by La Pampeana (+8.5%). At the category level, Seasonal led the increase (+12.6%) followed by the Core CPI (+8.4%); while the Regulated registered an increase of 4.9%.
For his part, Juan Pablo Albornoz, economist at Inveqhe explained: “Core inflation for the last quarter ran to 145% annualized. So far this year it rises to 129% annualized, 20 points faster than regulated prices. Very complicated dynamics for an economy with unanchored expectations and repressed inflation.”
What’s coming in the next few months
Gonzalo Semilla economy Head of CREEBBA He opined that “at the current rate it leaves a panorama with little certainty regarding what could be the minimum and maximum number for the current year. To reach the same level as last year, the average index until the end of the year should be located at 5%. Without embargo, depending on the current monthly inertia it could reach the range of 125% to 145%“.
And he expanded: “Under this scenario, and even before the publication by the INDEC, advances were already agreed with respect to the peer adjustments coming. These are likely to be updated monthly, interest rates to be adjusted a third timethat the variation rate of the official exchange rate is more pronounced (despite going in the opposite direction), among other side effects”.
So far in May, according to the S&T surveyprices continue the acceleration of the last week of April, and They rise up to 8.2% so far this month in relation to the same period in Aprilwhich reveals an upside risk in the price trend.
For its part, Libertad y Porgreso issued a report in which they maintain that May aims to close with inflation at a floor of 8.6%. “This assuming the evolution of prices behaves in the same way as in the last two weeks of March, that is, under an optimistic scenario in which there is no disruptive event such as the currency run in the second half of April. Instead, if the behavior of the last two weeks of April were to be repeated, it would close at 10.4% per month or more, aiming to break the data for April 2002″they explained.