The impact of the fall in the collection of export withholdings deteriorated public accounts. It moves away from the figures agreed with the IMF.
The National Treasury registered a primary fiscal deficit of $331,373 million in Aprilwhich implied a growth of 318.5% compared to the same month last year, reported the Ministry of Economy.
The official data confirm the previous estimations of private consultants who warned of a deterioration of the accounts based on the greater financing needs that were seen throughout the month. Among others, the increase in net financing obtained in the market in pesos and thethe need to resort to the assistance of the Central Bank. This is within the framework of a cost cut that cannot be offset by the sharp drop in tax revenue as a result of the drought that affected export withholdings.
In April total revenue totaled $1.8 trillion with a nominal increase of 71.9% compared to April 2022, evidently well below inflation of the period (108.8%). Of these, $1.7 trillion corresponded to income from tax collection, which marked a nominal increase of 87.1%. The so-called Property Income, which last year served to increase income, this time fell a nominal 34.5%, registering $88,280 million. Meanwhile, other income contributed $80,470 million, with a nominal improvement of 78.7%.
On the other hand, primary spending amounted to $2.2 trillion and grew 88.7% in nominal terms, also well below inflation. Current expenses amounted to $2 trillion (+87.8%); social benefits, $1.2 trillion (+89.6%); subsidies, $284,798 million (75.7%); operating expenses, $341,605 million (+94.8%); transfers to provinces, $65,572 million (+30.9%); transfers to universities, $76,396 million (+123.2%); and other current expenses, $40,849 million (+166.7%).
As for capital expenditures, outflows of $176,999 million were recorded, which implies a nominal year-on-year growth of 99%.
If the expenses as a result of the payment of debt interest are added, the loss amounts to $407,388 million, which implies nominal growth of 178%, in this case, well above inflation for the period.
With these numbers, in the first four months the government seems to be heading to discuss with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) a change in the fiscal program, which aims to conclude 2023 with a red equivalent to 1.9% of GDP.
Between January and April the accumulated amount is $1 billion and it is already located at 0.59% of GDP, reported the Treasury. From the private sector, various analysts suggested that Sergio Massa would have to negotiate a new target of 2.4% to 2.5% of GDP. Some suggest that this year it could exceed 3%, if the current trend continues.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Economy reported that within the framework of the “restrictive scenario, the administration of the fiscal policy ordered by the authorities of the Ministry of Economy moderated the negative impact on the primary result of the period caused by the drop in collection”.
Source: Ambito
