As Cristina Kirchner, the minister Sergio Massa looking for exactly the same thing: that the market does not become curlers. Although in the case of the vice president the objective is that no one speculates with her candidacy, in the case of the Tigrense he refers directly to the dollar. In the last hours, the Government announced via the Securities Commission a new set of measures that particularly affects the world of the MEP dollar and the CCL dollar. What does the measure consist of and what final objective does it seek? One more: in what context should the measure be understood?
The idea is that all those who want to buy MEP or CCL dollars via bond operations such as AL30 or GD30 will have a 15-day limitation to use those dollars. That is to say that once the operation is carried out they will not be able to do anything else (during the following 15 calendar days) other than sell those dollars against similar titles, but that are not LEDES.
From AL30 to MEP dollar
Free stone then for the curl that is trying to be eliminated. Well, what a lot of market players did was buy an AL30 bond and sell it against the same dollar bond the next day. Until then, the same thing that anyone who wants to buy MEP dollars would do. However, the trick consisted of taking those dollars resulting from the operation and buying LEDES in dollars and then selling it against pesos. How much did you earn in that kind of twisted roller? Approximately 2% for each turn.
A CNV source told Ambit Now that is not going to be possible. Ergo, if you buy the MEP dollar, you will not be able to sell it to buy another asset. But something important is that the roll is prohibited, not the MEP dollar. Even some sources consulted last night stated that it was not expected that an operation that is usually done in parallel, known as “mash”, that is, buying dollars on the stock market to sell them on the blue, would not be expected either. It is not expected that the supply of banknotes in the caves will subside, but rather that the demand for the MEP dollar that the thankless task of selling bonds to counteract the buying wave generated for the Government will decrease. Strictly speaking, if you think about it, it is probable that the supply of dollars in the blue will continue to grow, which could generate a marginal drop -but drop at the end- in the informal bill.
arbitrage dollar
A few days ago there was a first sign that anticipated all this. A kind of alert signal on the BCRA screens that evidenced the “arbitration party” a curl that was vox populi and of which, surely, even the IMF had news. As can be supposed, the first thing that Minister Massa did was cut it off with the idea that this mechanism does not distort prices.
The Pesce BOYS and the dollar LEDES
In a change of strategy, the “Pesce boys” launched a counter-offensive: they thought that the best thing to do was to “withdraw” of the interventions and generate some losses for those who were messing around with the MEP and the LEDES. By being halfway through with the operations, without the BCRA as a counterparty, prices rose, the gaps narrowed and that arbitration was truncated.
As said, the government’s idea is not to stop intervening, quite the contrary. It is to use less firepower for better results. In other words, reduce the strong speculative demand for the bonds that the BCRA was operating as a counterpart to the roll-fest, and return to a more harmonious scenario. Or something like that.
Source: Ambito
