The inertiadifferent magnifications regulated and a marked increase in the sector foodare some of the factors that affect a new high record of inflation. Data that, according to the different estimateswould be located between 8.5% and 9.1%.
By case, according to Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of the Foundation Freedom and Progresswith data up to May 29, the CPI measured by the entity “accumulates a rise of 9.1%” (in April, the firm’s survey had shown a variation of 7.2%). “Thus, the acceleration in prices that we had already seen in April and March is consolidated. It is the most important and persistent price rise since the hyperinflation of 1990”, Marí highlighted to Ámbito.
“For his part, the category of food and non-alcoholic beverages closed with the same variation as the general CPI, 9.1%. It aims to close again above 9% per month. Unfortunately, we hope that this will be reflected in the poverty statistics for the first half of the year, which would return to 2020 levels, around 42/43%,” added the economist.
Among other factors that contributed to a new acceleration of inflation, Marí stressed: “It must be taken into account that in May there was some pressure from regulated prices due to the updating of rates. Something that would not be repeated in the coming months and that, then, could contribute to the CPI measurement slowing down by a few tenths. However, what is clear is that the rise in prices in Argentina has stabilized at a rate well above 7% per month, leaving the promise of 4% made in 2022 far behind”.
For his part, Claudio Caprarulo, director at Analyticsestimated a monthly inflation of 8.9% for May (Since the signing they had forecast a rise in the CPI of 8% in April). “There is a very important inertial componentwhich is noticeable in mass consumption products, an effect to which the updating of energy rates was added this month”.
Going forward, the economist estimated that the inertia would continue in June, “because a high inflation regime is observed and one of its characteristics is that the transfer to prices is very fast.”
Meanwhile, since eco go highlighted that “inflation of 9% for the month is consolidated, marking the beginning of another inflationary regime in the remainder of the year”. This consultant had estimated a rise of 7.3% for the past month.
For his part, from the signing C&Tprojected that inflation in May would be around 8.5%. For April, the measurement of the consultant had given a variation of 7.6%.
Inflation: How Food Evolved
When analyzing the evolution of the sector foodfrom the Eco Go consultancy highlighted that the survey corresponding to the fourth week of the month “recorded a sharp slowdown, exhibiting a variation of 0.4% in food prices compared to the previous week.”
“With this data inflation for food consumed at home in May would rise to 8.6% per month. If we also consider the evolution of food consumed outside the home (10.7%), food inflation would reach 9.0%”, they explained from the firm.
Meanwhile, from LCG they highlighted that in the fourth week of May the average rise in food prices was 0.3%, slowing down 1 pp compared to the previous week. “The food and beverage index presented a monthly inflation of 7.8% average in the last four weeks and 6.5% end to end in the same period. So far this month, inflation has accumulated 6.5%”, they explained.
According to the firm’s survey, the products dairy and eggs rose 11%, condiments and other food products 10.1%. To a lesser extent, the vegetables (6.6%) and the meats (5.8%). In any case, the latter were the ones with the highest incidence in the general rise.
Source: Ambito
