Measured in volume, exports of meat grew during April, but this expansion was not reflected in a higher foreign exchange earningsbecause the prices international continued to decline. In turn, in the domestic market, they estimate that the consumption of beef cuts (and their substitutes) will continue to grow this year, contrary to the global trend.
According to the latest report from the Meat Industry and Commerce Chamber (CICCRA), the exports of beef grew in April 9.6% year-on-yearan improvement that was explained by higher sales to China (they climbed 21.7%).
Anyway, the fall in the average price of exports caused the income from foreign sales of beef to fall 22.1% in April. Thus, in the first four months, the contraction in revenue was 17.2% compared to the same period in 2022. This happened despite the fact that, in volume, 13.2% more was exported.
“Lhe slowdown in economic activity in China is what causes the decrease in the price of our exports to that market, whose variation in recent months has ranged between 25 and 30%”, they explained from CICCRA, and detailed: “Simultaneously with this process, the United States is in a stage of stock reduction, which will avoid paying better prices than those offered by the Asian giant, since it is having an oversupply of cows for the hamburger and processed meat market.
“These two events lead us to believe that this year there will be no significant price improvements until November and December.months in which purchases are made for the new year, a period in which the consumption of beef in that country increases,” they concluded from the entity.
Meat: local consumption, contrary to the world
Regarding consumption, while in Argentina continues to recover consumption of bovine meat and the different substitutes are also growing, they project that at a global level the trend is different. In this regard, from the Rosario Stock Exchange they pointed out that the prospects for a global economic slowdown “They have an impact on the consumer trends and in the case of beef, the USDA provides for a slight drop of 0.3% in production and a decrease of 0.1% in consumption”.
“The drop in production and consumption is not abrupt, but marks a stagnation in the development of the sector for this year”, they remarked from the BCR, and detailed: “For its part, world consumption of poultry and pork meat will continue to grow this year, with expected increases of 1.35% and 0.22%, respectively”.
Meanwhile, when analyzing the local scenario, from the Rosario Stock Exchange they maintained: “The total consumption of beef, poultry and pork per inhabitant in Argentina could be around 115.2 kg in the year 2023. If so, it would represent an improvement of 4.2% compared to the previous year, and consumption levels close to those of 2017 would be reached”.
The entity reviewed that the composition of the meat diet of the average inhabitant would be composed of 46% beef, 39% poultry meat and 15% pork meat. So, beef “would have increased 2.3 percentage points compared to 2022, reaching levels close to those of 2019.”
In other words, the internal demand for the different beef cuts would continue to grow, recovering from historical lows. According to BCRA projections, in 2023 a consumption of 53.1 kg per inhabitant is estimated, which would be the highest volume since 2018 and would be considerably higher than the 2022 average, which was 47.5 kg/inhabitant. .
“Argentina is still the main consumer of beef per inhabitant worldwide, comfortably surpassing the two countries that continue on the podium: Uruguay and the United States, where the average inhabitant would consume 43 and 37 kg, respectively. Next, Brazil (35.3 kg), Israel (27.2 kg), Chile (26.3 kg) and Australia (25.6 kg) follow in the ranking”, concluded the study of the Rosario Stock Exchange .
Source: Ambito
