They estimate moderate growth (although they warn of difficulties)

They estimate moderate growth (although they warn of difficulties)

During the first quarter of the year, the Industrial production accumulated growth of 2.6% compared to the same period of 2022. This Thursday, the INDEC will release the data for April and, according to various private surveys, the sector is expected to continue on a path of moderate growth.

Forward, the prospects are tied to the availability of foreign currency and access to imports. In this scenario, the negotiations carried out by the Government to enable mechanisms without the need to use dollars are of fundamental importance.

When analyzing the data that can be expected for April, from LCG they pointed out: “After the growth observed in February (3.4% se), we estimate that the industry will continue on the path of very moderate growth affected by the restrictions on imports that operate given the scarcity of foreign currency. For now, the leading indicators of the Automotive Industry and Oil Refining reflected a monthly growth of 13% and 3%, respectively”.

Meanwhile, the Industrial Production Index measured by Fiel for the same period registered a fall of 1% year-on-year and a monthly rise of 4.5% without seasonality. “With this advance, the level of activity of April 2022 was equaled, when the start of a new contractive phase in the industry was preliminarily dated. At the same time, the current level of production is 7.6% higher than that of last October when the lowest adjusted level in recent months was recorded,” the study explained.

Accompanying the increase in the April index, the indicators that allow monitoring the sustainability of the phase showed an improvement. Notwithstanding the foregoing, it is premature to indicate a change of phase towards a recovery, bearing in mind that in the past there have been similar episodes in which the deterioration of the macroeconomic scenario, today characterized mainly by the scarcity of foreign exchange and the acceleration of inflation, caused a deepening of the cut in industrial activity ”, detailed from Fiel.

In this scenario, from the firm they detailed that in the first four months of the year there was a “parsimonious cut in activity, while it is sustained by the contribution of specific branches such as the automotive industry”. “In perspective, the availability of foreign currency will continue to mark the path that the activity follows. The use of currency exchange with China has only been applied at the moment to imports from that origin, while without guarantees, Brazilian financing of local imports is not available”, they detailed.

Meanwhile, according to the IPI measured by the Orlando Ferreres consultancy, in April industrial activity contracted 0.4% year-on-year and remained unchanged in the monthly comparison, to accumulate an advance of 1.1% in the first four-month period.


Beyond the April data, future prospects are conditioned by the macroeconomic situation and the exchange aspect. For example, in the survey released by the UIA in May, it was highlighted that “The impact of macroeconomic and exchange rate tensions on the productive fabric, rising costs and more pressure on the supply chain is noted”.

“Companies perceive that their situation has worsened in the last year, but there is some improvement in the prospects for the next despite the fact that their expectations for the future remain at low levels,” the entity added.

Another fact that emerged from the survey is that “more than half of the companies consider that it is a good moment to invest in machinery and equipment”. “However, a downward trend is observed in the latest surveys,” he stressed.

“During the last few months, macroeconomic tensions began to take a more leading role in the economic situation of companies. The restrictions on imports and the tensions in the exchange market at the end of April have an impact on the daily operations of companies, with rising costs and increasing pressure on the supply chain,” the UIA stressed.

Regarding the evolution of the sector in May, one of the sectoral indicators that is already known is that of automotive production, which according to Adefa registered growth of 14.8% year-on-year and had a decline of 1.5% compared to April. .

Source: Ambito

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