Still stunned by the results of the STEP, operators and investors settle positions on what is coming. Closed and heated debates. No one wants to be exposed but no one sees a decent way out either. Without fear of a hyperinflationary process but knowing that the numbers do not close even with the arrival of the “7th cavalry” from Washington. And today everyone questions whether the reaction of the post-Step market rather respond to surprise Miley, or to the meager performance of Together for Change, or that the ruling party still has a chance “even if you don’t believe it”, as a famous series from the 60s/70s said.
Justicialista mythology (and even Antonio Cafiero himself once said so) maintains that in the General’s time there was so much gold in the Central Bank (BCRA) that you couldn’t walk through the corridors. Today, in the distance, there are so many promissory notes and flying checks with Qatar, Beijing, Washington, Caracas, etc. that Don Miguel Pesce cannot go through the bowels of the monetary entity either. About, An exchange operator commented at the conference that there was no foreign currency for importers, who a week ago stopped all payments in August, and that they finally kicked all the maturities from August to October and November. The next CPI will be good for what is lived in the street and gondolas. But analysts are already warning that September, with the drag of the post-PASO devaluation, will come with everything. The operators took note.
Another colleague provided the information that the BCRA had cut its open positions in the dollar futures market to half of what it had in June/July. They estimate that it has only about 2,000 to 2,500 million dollars in contracts sold. So it has full capacity to intervene in this market to deflate expectations. That it succeeds, in this context, is another matter. The certain thing is that the level of the liquidation of the exporters lowered and everything begins to become rare again. In the middle all the electoral, media and street battle.
In an interesting counterpoint, economists highlighted the poor performance of the Treasury in July. And since the fight to be a gold or silver medal now began on October 22, and thus define in November, they fear that the fiscal numbers will derail. That’s why everyone wants to see the report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that enabled the next disbursements. New surprises are not ruled out for October and December, as happened on August 14.
Meanwhile, another group from the market debated in the basement of the Devoto cellar where Rofex men commented on the electoral results from the Rosario perspective, perhaps a good mirror of the national macro. After an impressive tasting that even included a sparkling wine from Chubut, veterans of several financial crises, with the latest IIF reports in hand, digested the vision of the local situation as seen from DC by the world banking think tank. There they are clear that an adjustment is imposed in the level of imports to get their heads out of the water.
And about the last devaluation, they maintain that they fell short by about 50 mangos (instead of $350 the IIF gives them $406), and they believe that the long overdue depreciation will not provide much relief without major monetary and fiscal corrections.
A man with political lineage explained that given the results of the PASO, he did not see a way out of the Brazilian one like Lula’s embrace with Fernando Enrique, because it is not so clear that something like this could happen here, since 60% demonstrated against the system (Milei voters, blank and absent votes) and on the other side was politics, the caste, divided by halves, by some irreconcilable parts. The question is how porous Milei’s border is to turn to the other opposition option. The thing is that in Juntos they are still “groguis”, as if Tyson had put a hand in them in the 1st round or they scored a goal in the 90′ minute.