The Economist Carlos Melconianpossible Minister of Economy of Patricia Bullrich He gave a series of interviews to the media this weekend and left at least 10 specific definitions on the economy in which his vision of the dollar, exchange stocksthe withholdings, public spending and bimonetarism. In this note one by one.
In dialogue with La Nación, in an interview conducted by journalists Matías Moreno and Esteban Lafuente, the economist highlighted the following points:
The economist compared the “Plan Bonex” in politics with the “Plan Bonex” of the economy and highlighted his refusal to allow that to happen. “We don’t want a “Bonex plan” to come in the economy. So, we have to begin to distinguish civility from fantasy. And that’s the discussion. “We don’t want a Bonex plan to come in the Economy.”
Melconian referred to the devaluation of the official dollar imposed by Sergio Massa until October and pointed out inconsistencies. “The first thing to explain is why until August 13 you told me “I don’t devalue, I don’t devalue, it’s not necessary” and on Monday at 10 in the morning you put it at $350. People are not stupid. Now? Are you going to get stuck at 350 again? And on October 23 you have a problem. It’s all coming, going and coming. The only interest that this Minister of Economy has today is not to devalue, postpone any hint of recession and continue kicking the drought for the next government.
For Carlos Melconian, people “do not understand” the costs of dollarization.
“I think he doesn’t understand it because if he did understand it, there would have to be a demonstration in Plaza de Mayo to say: ‘I don’t want this fantasy’. I exaggerate with a demonstration, it’s one way of saying it. But here the format is another thing. It’s part of the same exorcism we’re in. You have to work as hard as you can in terms of putting feasible, empirical solutions on the table that improve people’s quality of life and show that there is a horizon.”
“This government is making the adjustment. When this government increases public spending to 80% per year and inflation is 110%, it is making the adjustment. What we have to do is balance nominality. It is the same adjustment that each one when he receives his salary. There are no miracles. Everything else is a lie of candidates. That is why we are in this mess. Don’t you see that a third continues and two thirds said “enough”?”
“Using dollars and pesos will be within the law. And up to a certain amount of your dollars you will be able to use them openly the first day without the Argentine hypocrisy that I invoice in pesos, but they give me bills, if it is at the exchange rate alternative. All that hypocrisy that is used today flies.”
6. Public spending
“You have to make spending more efficient. There is a battalion led by Daniel Artana, who understands a lot about this. Think that I was president of Banco Nación for a year and our respect for the lines, to prioritize people and get them out of abandonment .. You have to generate mystique. If you go to the Conicet and instead of closing it, you tell them: “These two work, this one doesn’t.” The one who works is happy because he says: “Hey, I heard that they are going to close the Conicet and I’ve been here for twenty years. I love him, I work and that’s what I want to do in my life. Why are you going to shut me down for these two who don’t work?” And I’m saying it from liberalism, because I believe that the engine and the salt of an economy is its private sector. But the private sector does not make a Conicet. I say: why are you going to be so unfair to close for two who don’t work? Get those two out. That is the format”.
For the economist, some withholdings can be removed on December 10, “others less.” “But, of course, we are going to have an exchange rate for export and import in the same market. We are going to eliminate the restrictions on exports. And if we are successful and the gap collapses, it will be an upgrade issue for the highly weighted sector. We will balance. To the extent that we are successful and the real exchange rate in Argentina has a moderate and understandable value, we can play with tax policy.”
8. The transition to December
The former President of the Central Bank highlighted his concern about the transition and the situation of the economy in December. “I am losing the idea that there could be a transition of gentlemen and patriotic like the one that Macri, of whom I have been a special critic in economic matters of his management, offered at the time to the government of Alberto Fernández. That worries me. Because The first abnormality is that the Minister of the Economy is a candidate and there is an absolute incompatibility between being a candidate and a minister. And because I see that, despite coming third and having a series of economic conflicts – where at most he will be able to fulfill the famous crossing the river of the “Caruso” Lombardi plan, which at the time was seen in a derogatory tone, but today I embrace Caruso-, continues the same, out of focus.
9. The role of the Central Bank
On the other hand, he discussed Javier Milei’s idea of closing the Central Bank and stated: “I don’t know how countries work without a Central Bank. If Bullrich told me: “Come, you are going to be my Minister of Economy and you have to close the Central Bank”. I would say: “No. Thank you, Patricia, but I can’t take that because I don’t know what it is like”.
10. Exchange stocks
“We are going to get out of the exchange rate web we are in quickly,” he concluded bluntly.