Due to the measure, in front of different unions, the official stated: “I am going to ask you to take care of the economy. If you have to save, buy a car or a good produced in Argentina. Don’t buy dollars from me“. Faced with an upcoming inflation data estimated in double digits, Economists look carefully at where workers will put what is no longer withheld by the tax and, above all, what will happen to parallel dollars.
For Laura Pereyra, director of PIN Capital, if the objective is to become dollarized, it is better to do so in the dollar MEP, an operation “with three clicks” and without the risk of delivering counterfeit bills. In turn, if the idea is to maintain the position in pesos, during the coming months it recommends “assets tied to the CER index.” “Funds or bonds with that adjustment clause, that are still at a good price. Mutual investment funds have active management to search for the best instruments,” details the specialist.
The view of Andres Reschini, head of F2 Soluciones Financieras, is different, as he assures that “you don’t have to stay in pesos, much less at a fixed rate.” “We know that inflation in August will be high and also leaves a high drag for September. Furthermore, it is not clear what will happen to the exchange rate after October,” he explains in dialogue with Ámbito. Thus, he considers that the blue may be impacted by the refund of income from the removal of the tax on gross salaries up to $1,770,000.
A report was released from the Ministry of Economy that details the return of pesos to employees, with the aim of transferring them to consumption. As of October 1, a worker who earns a gross salary of $800,000 will have a benefit of $117,690.32 or 21.4%. The same for one of $900,000, in practical terms you will have a recovery of $152,690.32 or 25%. And a worker who has a gross salary of $1,000,000 will have a compensation of $187,690.32, 27%. By January 1, the goal is for only 0.88% of the country’s registered employees to contribute to paying Profits. Thus, 800,000 workers will be excluded from paying this tax: only 90,000 will pay it, according to current numbers handled by the Economy.
Overturning up to 27% of the salary of a worker who will stop paying earnings can generate disruptions in the different contributions. For Reschini, the greatest impact will be on the MEP dollar, although it may also be partially registered in the blue dollar. Martín Kalos, director of EPyCA Consultora, agrees with this point, adding that it makes no sense to go to the parallel dollar “because those achieved are formal salaries.”
During the day on Monday, the MEP dollar rebounded $2.18 (0.3%) and stood at $675.54. In this way, the gap with the official exchange rate reaches 93%. In turn, the CCL fell $5.06 (0.7%) and reached $736.03, after falling 3.5% last week. Thus, the gap with the official figure is 110.3%.
In this sense, Alejandro Bianchi, CEO of Investment Advisor, highlights that “the gap between one dollar and the other has closed a lot,” so “the issue of Cedears is beginning to become attractive again.” Furthermore, he maintains that in the last two weeks the market “receded a lot, about 15% in dollars for Merval” and for bonds and Cedears at these levels “it is beginning to be attractive again to enter again, it seems to me that there is a opportunity,” clarifies the specialist.
The market movement
Meanwhile, Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI), highlights that Monday was a gray day for the local market. The Central Bank purchased US$52 million, halving the US$104 million purchased on Friday. Along these lines, the global ones showed drops between -0.4% and -0.7%, extending the declines of last Friday. Thus, the weighted average price fell 0.5%, positioning itself at US$31.1. In turn, the titles that observed the worst performance were GD35, which fell 0.7%, followed by GD46 and GD30, which fell 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively. For their part, the Bonares obtained mixed results. The AL30 and AE38 added positive variations, 0.5% and 0.7% each. On the other hand, the AL29 and the AL35 fell 0.6%.
According to its estimates, the BCRA released US$24.4 million today to contain the escalation of financial dollars. Thus, the total of the last five days remains at US$153 million. As far as equity is concerned, the main Argentine index in dollars “cannot stop its decline.” In this sense, the Merval in dollars plummeted 2.85%, mainly explained by its valuation in pesos, which fell 3.45%.
Finally, the index sank to US$704. Only two papers from the leading panel in pesos managed to break zero, LOMA (0.97%) and BBAR (0.23%). While the stocks that suffered the most were TXAR, ALUA and YPFD, cutting 6.7%, 5.6% and 4.7%. The CCL Senebi ended the day at $735.
Source: Ambito
