The INDEC will release today the inflation data for August, a month that was marked by the devaluation of the official dollar and the volatility in alternative exchange rates. In this scenario, different private consulting firms predicted a double-digit variation in the CPI, also driven largely by a marked rise in the food sector, with a strong impact on meat.
If private forecasts come true, monthly inflation in August would be the highest since 1991: estimates from the different surveys are around 11%, although some surveys place the figure above 12%.
In this regard, the consulting firm LCG analyzed: “On a nominal value that hovered at a floor of 6.5%-7% monthly inflation, the 22% devaluation ordered by the BCRA was set up. Despite this, the exchange gaps did not manage to compress, but even deepened immediately, also pushing the rise of parallel exchange rates.”
Thus, the survey of food prices carried out by the firm indicated a monthly inflation of 10%. “Likewise, August had regulated price increases such as fuel, buses, schools, communications, among others, which would contribute about 2 pp to the general index. Based on this, and assuming almost 50% pass through in a context of high indexation, we estimate that August will mark inflation around 12% monthly (123% annually),” they detailed.
For its part, Eco Go’s retail price survey registered a “strong acceleration after the PASO”, to close the month with an increase of 11.5%, according to the firm. “In August, food and beverage prices registered an increase of 12.7%, which represents a strong acceleration after the 7.3% captured by our survey in July. The largest increases occurred after the PASO and the devaluation in the third and fourth week of the month with increases of 4.8% and 5.8% weekly, record figures in the series (in the last six months, the increases were 1.7% weekly on average)”, they analyzed.
The CPI measured by the Libertad y Progreso Foundation registered a monthly increase of 10.7% in August (in July the firm had measured 6.6%, compared to the 6.3% reported by INDEC). “This result marks the highest monthly increase since March 1991, even surpassing the record of April 2002, in the midst of the exit from Convertibility,” the firm explained.
For its part, the C&T survey recorded an inflation of 11% for the GBA region (it had been 6.3% in July, the same figure as the INDEC). Meanwhile, for Ecolatina, August inflation in the GBA was 11.2%, while for Orlando Ferreres it was 12.2%.
Source: Ambito
