The grains advance with a dropper

The grains advance with a dropper
September 15, 2023 – 00:00

There is still more water to go. For the AFIP there was no drought. Exhibitions and special auctions. The conflict with the Waterway increases. They improve northern wheats. Alert on collections and receipts.

… that, While not entirely regular rains continue to occur, the leases that were still pending and with prices similar (and even somewhat lower) to those of last year were consolidated.. Although “a progressive change is noted in the above-average humidity conditions,” as the AZ Group special report points out, it also recognizes that the situation is not fully declared, although the change is gradual, and will occur especially in the northeastern part of the country. The same is predicted in the last quarter for temperatures that, except for this September, would be above average, although without reaching last year’s levels. The forecast coincides with that of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, which foresees a moderate rise in temperature this week, accompanied by rain over the east of the agricultural area, ending with a drop in temperatures.” But, the Rosario Stock Exchange report highlights that “last week’s rains did not change the sustained drought scenario in the north and west of the Pampas region. The wheat production estimate was cut by 4% and there is an alert in corn,” says the BCR, while production organizations, especially those focused on “regenerative agriculture,” still see the possibility of a “historic record.” of corn with an estimate of 7.3 million hectares destined for cultivation”, that is as long as the climatic conditions are regularized, especially extreme in the center and west of the agricultural region. As for wheat, a few weeks before the start of the harvest in the north of the country “It is estimated that more than 1.7 million hectares of wheat, which is equivalent to 32% of what was planted, is in fair to poor conditions . With a planted area of ​​5.4 million hectares and a new production estimate of 15 million tons, Argentina would still produce 30% more wheat than in the previous cycle, which was historically low,” states the Rosario Stock Exchange. .

…which, this also marked part of the rhythm of the livestock market that, after the abrupt drop in consumption (due to the spectacular increases in prices, after the devaluation of mid-August), the supply is gradually decreasing to the extent that improvements are expected in the amount of grass (due to the rains) and as they go increasing humidity and temperature. The most marked drop is expected in the Cow category (special export to China). The consolidation is also seen in the special auctions and in the sales of players, a thermometer of the producers’ forecasts, which appear very firm, especially in the special sales and, surely, also in the large auctions such as the one expected in Aberdeen Angus next week in Olavarría. The fact, furthermore, that the feed lots have been delivering the farm with fewer kilos, which coincided with the decrease in pasture breeding (precisely because what there was not, was “pasture”), suggests an eventual increase in the prices of the property standing even before the elections at the end of October. “For the coming months, a very low supply of steers is expected, and new declines in cow slaughter due to seasonal reasons. The supply of light consumption livestock will only be reduced in the last months of ’23 and, especially, in the first half of ’24,” highlights specialist Ignacio Iriarte in his latest Livestock Report.

… that, While there are already almost 2 million tons of soybeans marketed with the new exchange conditions, local prices of the oilseed advanced around 25% compared to the start a week ago, trading yesterday at $160,000/ton vs. $130,000 then.. The pace of operations suggests that by the end of the month (when the new section of the Export Increase Plan -PIE- ends) the 3 million tons planned by the Government will have been captured. But, simultaneously, particular discomfort is causing among producers a communication from the AFIP that states that “according to the hectares declared for the 22/23 campaign, the declared production has a low yield for the type of grain, province, and locality selected. Remember that this self-declarative information is subject to subsequent controls and verifications by this Administration,” reads the disturbing message that, perhaps, would have gone more unnoticed if it had not been for the dry season that caused an average loss of more than 50%. of production, “as the Government itself knows,” a farmer from Entre Ríos became angry.

Source: Ambito

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