Finally, the monthly inflation rate for August was 12.4%. Let’s say you’ve just seen half of the devaluation. The rest of the pass through plus the collateral effects and those of the second and third round still remain to be seen. The market points to a quarter loaded with double-digit indices and waiting for what happens in December, in case the new government uncovers the pot and rearranges relative prices before the end of the year.
The truth is On the operating tables, no one is shocked by the inflation rates, but they are shocked by the bills for public services that arrive at their homes.. People of good fortune, for the most part, but even so they do not hide the surprise at such percentages of increase. These are no longer electricity bills equivalent to the value of a large piece of mozzarella, as the Cambiemos economists illustrated in 2015, but rather they are almost a wedding catering.
For now, Don Miguel did not touch the rate and now we will have to see what savers do. Of course there is still a margin until the generals and continue playing at the rate. For now, the reference rate remains below 210% annual effective against an annualized inflation of almost 307%. Regarding the “A3500”, The market expects less devaluation than what the dollar futures mark, $510 at the end of the year versus $615 that the Rofex December future closed on Wednesday. A REM fact: the TOP 10 forecasters estimated the official wholesale dollar at $576.
On the debt side, a waiter warned colleagues that the sell-off of sovereign curves in pesos continued, while operations at the BCRA’s intervention prices had intensified, about 200 basis points per above the cut-off rates of the last tender. Another fact: no sales were seen related to the flow of FCIs that came from a week of bailouts.
It was almost a technical stopover, but a group of funds specialized in emerging markets set foot on national soil for a few hours on his South American raid. They took advantage, in addition to the attractive local prices, to launch some lines with consultants and market people. They took home the message that the current government seemed not to be very committed to the idea of following the flexible goals with the IMF.and the whole scaffolding of crazy measures, because they came to contradict each other, since one expanded spending and another slowed down the expansion, they were a sign that the game was being played to the fullest and would later be seen, although the last disbursement of the year is pending .
About Milei They got the idea that, although neither the team nor the program is clear, what did seem to be a foregone conclusion is that their government will be a kind of “Fast and Furious” where they will have to manage the expectations of their own and others. The consensus tells them that if there is a runoff, because today the option of winning in the first round remains firm, in any case it will have the libertarian on one side of the ring.
At dinner, the group spent their time commenting on the main fight on Wall Street: Bill vs. Jeffrey. It is neither more nor less than the one known as the “King of bonds” Bill Gross and his colleague Jeffrey Gundlach. It seems that the founder of PIMCO does not give in to give up his throne to the CEO of DoubleLine Capital and reopened the controversy in a seminar in California where he pointed out that to be a king you first need a kingdom, and said that PIMCO had a $2 billion while DLC is about $55 billion, that is not a kingdom, it is like Latvia or Estonia. Jeffrey’s reaction is still awaited.