With the presentation of the 2024 Budget, the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, confirmed that in December of this year it plans to modify the fixed exchange rate that it established in August, to put the wholesale dollar at a value of $367. However, The market believes the devaluation will be earlier and greater.
What the Budget establishes about the exchange rate
Regarding the exchange rate, The 2024 Budget contemplates that the wholesale dollar will go from the current $350 to $367 at the end of December 2023. While, At the end of next year it would stand at $600, resulting from the application of a crawl policy aligned with inflationaccording to what they maintain in the Ministry of Economy.
It should be noted that this week the Market Expectations Survey (REM) published by the BCRA was released. There market analysts reported that they expect a stable exchange rate until October.
The projected nominal exchange rate remained around $350 per dollar, as announced after the recalibration on August 14. For November they placed it at $405.47 and for December at $510.01. January 2024, it was established at $669.81.
The official projections on the exchange rate also fall very short in relation to the values projected by the market in the futures market.
According to Matba Rofex prices, the official dollar already begins to accelerate in October, a month that would reach $400 after the elections. However, The increase will be greater for November, when the market expects an exchange rate of $482 at the end of that month. Already for December, the futures market discounts another strong devaluation, given that by the end of this year it projects a price of $630.