Did prices moderate in the first half of September?

Did prices moderate in the first half of September?
September 19, 2023 – 16:52

Private measurements assured that the first two weeks of September continued the drag of August, with very high food prices, still the result of the devaluation after the PASO. However, there are signs of a slowdown by the end of the month.

Ignacio Petunchi

August inflation was at record levels in 32 years. The 22% devaluation implied a shock that produced strong increases in several sectors of the economy, especially in food and health. From the first sector, Meats (+24.6%), and Vegetables (+18.3%), strongly pulled the index. Given this, it is worth asking: Did prices moderate in the first half of September?

For the consulting firm Eco Gofood inflation showed an increase in the second week of September of 2.5% compared to the previous week. “With this data and considering an average weekly projection of 2.3% for the last of the month, inflation of food consumed outside the home in September would be 13.5% and in general 13.1%“.

For this measurement “the price of meat tended to stabilize” after the spike in recent weeks following the devaluation. Thus, in the second week, beef rose 2.6%, driven by semi-prepared products. Chicken, for its part, advanced 4.4%, both fresh and frozen. As for fruits, they registered an increase of 2% and vegetables advanced 3.1%, with potatoes standing out, which rose 6.8%.

For its part, for the lcg consulting, The second week of September closed with an inflation of 1.6% in food and beverages. This index presented a monthly inflation of 9.7% average in the last 4 weeks and 7.6% end to end in the same period. If the average for the last month is taken into account, the biggest increases were: fruits (+15%), meats (+11.5%), drinks (+10.1%), and vegetables (+9.9%).

“After 8 weeks, the acceleration in food basket prices seems to have stalled, although it continues at a high level,” they stated from lcg. At the same time, they highlighted that the percentage of products with weekly increases fell slightlyreaching 17%, 4 percentage points below the average of the last 4 weeks.

Beyond food: How will September inflation close?

For the measurement of Ecolatina, In the first half of September, prices rose 15.3% compared to the same period in August, highest level since the series began and accounting for the “drag left by the second half of August,” they specified.

However, they considered that “the various freezes applied in recent weeks (official exchange rate, transportation rates, electricity, gas, medicines, partially prepaid, fuel), added to a greater tranquility of the gap within the framework of the “soy dollar 4.0” should temporarily contribute to inflationary moderation in the remainder of September and at least part of October.

In accordance with the consulting firm Ferreresthe preliminary inflation data for September (average of the first two weeks of the month vs. average of the five weeks of the previous month) was 9.1% monthly, while the core measurement was 10%. Besides, The average measurement of the second week of the month versus the second of August was 14% monthly.

Source: Ambito

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