– There is still a lack of rainthere is little sown, and the corn profitability The first one comes very scarce. To make matters worse, many producers had to pay more rent, an average of 18 quintals per hectare is estimated in the core area. Everyone wanted to go for more area to have revenge for 3 years of drought, this made the fields more expensive and complicated profitability. It seems to me that it is a year that a lot of area would be transferred to soybeans, which comes with better numbers than corn, although there is nothing to throw butter on the ceiling.
When it rains?
– We don’t know, but the rains should begin in the first week of October, according to the climatologists we consulted. For now and only for now, the nervousness continues.
Is there soybean left in the field?
– With the program soybean export incentives 3.1 million tons were sold. We believe that this program could continue, since the State continues to have shortages of Dollars -it is a personal opinion-, although the government says that it is not going to extend it. Today 6.8 million tons of soyand there would be about 10.2 million without a price.
Is there corn left in the field?
– 9.1 million tons remain to be sold, this is not enough for demand, there will be a shortage corn and the price will arbitrarily rise, if you have it, don’t rush to sell, if you need it, hurry up to buy.
Do these plans generate problems in other sectors?
– Correct, the increase in the cost of soy impacts the sector chicken, pig and dairy.
How much are soybeans sold for these sectors?
– In some inland towns the soy which today is worth $160,000 per ton, you pay $190,000 per ton, because there is a large shortage. This impacts costs and leaves many sectors unprofitable.
What about the chicken?
– They are closing farms because profitability disappeared. The refrigerators are working with less installed capacity, some that worked at 90% today do so at 50%, this increases the costs of the chickens, a box costs $12,000 and is selling for $10,000. Soon these businesses will begin to work fewer days per weekthey are going to bring forward the holidaysif the offer is not recomposed shortly, the suspensionsand no solutions in sight layoffs.
Is it that complicated?
– We are the only ones who are surveying productionthe rest are studying monetary theory, dollarization and Petete’s fat book (this denotes my age).
What happens to the pig?
– There is no way to make money with it pigcosts have skyrocketed, and for large farms each mother would have to produce more than 3,500 kilos to achieve cost effectiveness. Although it is true that there are farms of the Gitep that already produce 4,300 kilos per mother, that happens in the top ones, it is not normal in the entire chain. In the smallest ones, a minimum of 3,000 kilos per mother must be produced. For the effect cost rise and inflationWe are seeing many farms close, this will affect supply in the future, we are in trouble with the sector.
What happens with the beef?
– The task of 8 months of the year 2023 was one million heads higher than the slaughter of the same period of the year 2022. The extraction rate, which is the annualized slaughter of 14.5 million heads on a stock of 54.2 million heads, gives us a value of 26.7%, if this value is above 25% that implies that we are losing stock by leaps and bounds.
How is the slaughter of females?
– In the last 12 months, 7.7 million females were slaughtered out of a total slaughter of 14.5 million, this implies that 46.6% of those slaughtered are females. We are in a process of decapitalization. Talking about cowsout of a total of 23 million, we estimate that in 2023 the task will be greater than 3 million, this implies that the stock could be reduced to levels of 22 to 22.2 million cows. In the future there will not be so many calves and the price will arbitrate the rise.
Until when do you see the offer of cattle?
– The farms In the countryside they are mixed, if you have problems with agriculture it is logical that they sell the animals, as there is no good one in sight wheat harvestI believe that the beef market will be offered until March/April 2023. After that date, with a good harvest of soy and corn, rains that generate grass in the fields, the producer will dedicate himself to rebuilding the stock of cattlewith which the supply will fall, and the prices will be very different from the current ones.
How is the profitability of the livestock sector?
– Evil everywhere, lose the breederthe fact that get fat to corral and the one who does it to pasture. Only those who are integrated and sell to the public, or have an export outlet, win. Everything else is at a loss, the pens are full of animals, and today they are leaving so as not to continue losing. If you see Canuelas The weight of the animals dropped from an average of 428 kilos a year ago, to 405 kilos this September.
How do you see the dairy?
– If food becomes more expensive and the counter still has little money, there is no way that the dairy farmer can see a higher price in the future. They are closing large dairy farms, close to Ameghino One of more than 400 cows being milked was closed, the decapitalization is very great, this without counting those who lower the herd because they cannot bear the lack of income. In January and February come the months of dry cow, prepare for another sharp drop in production. The reduction in export withholdings for 90 days is good news, but that is not reaching the producer.
Throw me some of the dollar?
– The dollar today should be worth $987but in the informal market they pay $750, this price is a bargain, not to mention the MEP dollaror the dollar obtained by buying negotiable obligations.
Can you expand me a little?
– For that you have the private reports and the zoom that we will do on Tuesday 8:30 exclusively for people who purchase this service.
Conclusions
– We still do not have enough rain to plant corn and soyin the case of wheat every day that passes there is less harvest expectations, we started with an expectation of 17 million tons, and today we would hopefully have 14 million tons. He National Bank I would make an offer to stay with Vicentinthe Government would shortly make announcements in this regard.
– He chickenhe pighe free-range fattening and the drums all with negative profitability. It is difficult to do business with a high inflationand even more so if costs rise skyrocketing due to State incentives for the export of primary products.
– For September we expect a scenario of double digit inflationand probable Central Bank rate hike in October.
– The position future dollar October is located at $385, which implies that the market is not betting on a winner in the first round. If this position were trading above $420, we would say that there is a certain outcome.
– The position future dollar November stands at $476.30 with an increase of 23.7% compared to the October position. The December position stands at $626 with an increase of 31.4% compared to the November position. In both cases they are telling you that there will be a winner in the second round, and that as soon as he takes office he will seek to adjust the relative prices of the economy, among them is the wholesale dollar.
– If the wholesale dollar adjusts in December, do not rule out a value above $1,100 for the blue dollar.
– There is a lot of talk about monetaryand little of production. Nobody estimates that, if there is an increase in the exchange rate, many imported products will be at higher prices than local ones, and this will force many to make offers to reduce stock.
-Before there was a wait to buy cars, today they offer you immediate delivery. A calf that was worth $1,000 a kilo is now available for $700. The recession It is stronger than it seems to you, be careful that no one talks about this, because they are in love with money. The economy is falling very hard.
Source: Ambito
