The differential scheme has the peculiarity that it not only helps the monetary entity to accumulate reserves and defend the official exchange rate at $350 until the elections, as the Minister of Economy promised, Sergio Massabut also allocates 25% of the settled currencies to add Cash Offer with Settlement, which collaborated throughout this month to keep parallel quotes at bay.
It is in this context that The Government analyzes, in a matter of hours, adding incentives to exports. The proven and most effective way to contain the gap would be to extend the 4-dollar soybean term. What happens is that, according to sources in the sector, explained to this medium, “with the drought, about 30 million tons disappeared, so there is very little grain available in the hands of the producer.”
Along these lines, the same businessman and agribusiness leader estimated that “3.5 million tons were sold in this round and About 4 million tons would remain in the hands of producers until the April 2024 harvest.”. At today’s price, it would be around US$2 billion, what happens is that it is difficult for all the soybeans to be liquidated, taking into account the future obligations of the producers. Exporters also have a small margin of soybeans that they bought in this window and have not yet sold abroad.
“To sustain the official exchange rate, the Government is going to have to extend the soy dollar in October and they will probably end up putting more restrictions on access to dollars in all channels, which would bring more gap and more inflation,” a representative told this medium. economist who closely follows currency issues. Although The continuity of the soy dollar is not the only option that the Government is exploring.
Incentives for other exportable products: mining?
At this time, the possibility of adding incentives to other exportable products is also being discussed. “Some sectors are under evaluation,” the Government acknowledged. There are those who pointed to the regional economies, Although at the beginning of this month Massa already ordered the elimination of withholdings for a series of crops such as: rice, peanuts, must, wines, ciders, essential oils and tobacco, among others.
In the economic team nor do they rule out that In this case, a more comprehensive measure is carried out and include other export sectors, such as mining, with a time window. In any case, the margin is slim. The elections are approaching, the pressure on parallel dollars is redoubling and exchange peace will be key to not recreating a new inflationary escalation.